Selling August 3, 2022

Understanding the Value of Your Home: Market Value vs. Assessed Value and More

The math of a home sale is relatively straightforward. Sellers list their home at a certain price, a buyer makes an offer, and eventually the two parties reach a final, agreed-upon price. However, between these two points in the selling process, there are several other figures that go into to setting a home’s value that you should be aware of. Your real estate agent will be your best resource in interpreting the different values associated with your home and what they mean as you prepare to sell.

Understanding the Value of Your Home

Listed Price (Asking Price)

Also known as an asking price, the listing price of a home is the price at which a seller lists their property when it goes on the market. The listing price is a gross price, meaning the costs associated with selling the home are not included. A real estate agent’s Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) will accurately set your home’s listing price, accounting for the various factors that influence home prices including location, condition, seasonality, local market conditions, and more.

The listing price is a starting point for negotiations with buyers. You may receive an offer that matches your asking price, but it’s common for buyers to make offers at other price points. You can either accept, reject, or make a counteroffer in response until you and the buyer reach an agreement.

Whether you’re selling in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market may determine you and your agent’s approach to the listing price of your home. There may be certain pricing tactics you can employ to either drive buyer attention or increase competition, but if your home’s listing price strays too far from its market value (see below), it could stay on the market for longer than you expected.

Market Value

As a seller, you’re interested in what buyers are willing to pay for your home. By taking into account a home’s condition, size, curb appeal, and features, as well as local market conditions and what comparable homes are selling for, a home’s market value reflects the price buyers will pay for a property.

 

Man sitting at his computer at home talks to his real estate agent on the phone

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: damircudic

 

Appraised Value

A home’s appraised value is determined by a professional appraiser to ensure that the lender is loaning the correct amount of money for the home. Appraisers assess the home’s layout and features, square footage, gross living area (GLA), overall condition inside and out, home updates and remodels, and more. If the appraised value comes in too low or too high, the buyer and seller must renegotiate for the deal to go through. In competitive markets, buyers may include an appraisal gap guarantee in their offer, which states that the buyer will cover the difference between the price of the home and the appraised value.

Sale Price (Purchase Price)

Also known as the purchase price, your home’s sale price is what it ultimately ends up selling for. Once you and the buyer have reached an agreement on the terms of the transaction, the buyer will have the home inspected and final negotiations may occur based on the findings of the inspection. Familiarize yourself with the Common Real Estate Contingencies buyers may include in their offer and what they mean when selling your home.

Net Proceeds

So, how much do you actually make on the sale of your home? After subtracting the total costs of selling from your home’s sale price, you’ll arrive at your net proceeds. This is the amount you walk away with from the transaction.

Assessed Value

Your agent’s CMA is a reliable method of determining your home’s value for its eventual sale, but its assessed value is used for taxation purposes. Employed by local municipal or county entities, an assessor will conduct a review of your property to determine its assessed value. The assessor’s findings are passed to local tax officials, who use that number to calculate the home’s property taxes.

 

For answers to all your home selling questions, connect with a local, experienced Windermere agent today by clicking on the button below.

 

 


Featured Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: kupicoo

Market News August 3, 2022

Q2 2022 Utah Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

The Utah economy remains buoyant. Although the pace of job growth has tapered somewhat from 2021, jobs continue to be added faster than the long-term average. Over the past 12 months, the state has added 55,400 jobs, representing a growth rate of 3.4%. The counties covered in this report added almost 53,000 new jobs over the past year, representing a growth rate of 4%. The state’s unemployment rate in May was 2%, which is marginally above the all-time low of 1.9% in April of this year. The labor force continues to expand, suggesting that the region expects economic growth to remain strong. All in all, a very impressive situation.

Utah Home Sales

In the second quarter of 2022, 8,501 homes sold, which was a drop of 14.4% year over year. Sales were 30.9% higher than in first quarter of the year.

Year over year, sales rose in the small Morgan County area but fell in the rest of the markets included in this report. Conversely, sales rose across the board compared to the first quarter, with impressive growth in Morgan, Davis, Utah, and Salt Lake counties.

Inventory levels, which had been remarkably low, rose 206.2% from the first quarter of the year. This clearly had a positive effect on the market as more choice for buyers led to more sales.

Buyers appeared to shrug off the fact that mortgage rates rose more than 1.5% in the quarter, which suggests they still believe owning a home is a solid investment.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Utah from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. All counties listed showed a negative year-over-year percentage change, except for Morgan County, which showed a positive 40% change. Weber County had a -7.1% change, followed by Davis at -7.5%, Utah at -13.9%, Salt Lake at -17.5%, Wasatch at -21.3%, and Summit at -23.9%.

Utah Home Prices

Even with more homes on the market, prices continued to rise. Home prices rose 15.4% year over year to an average of $665,697, and they were 4.2% higher than in the first quarter of 2021.

I have started watching list prices, as they will be a leading indicator of whether the market is starting to feel the impacts of declining affordability due to rising financing costs. In the second quarter, the median list price in the region dropped 2.2%, but it rose in Morgan, Davis, and Salt Lake counties.

All areas contained in the report except for Wasatch County saw sale prices increase by double digits compared to a year ago. Compared to the first quarter of this year, prices were higher in every county other than Summit.

Higher financing costs combined with declining affordability may have started to slow the rapid pace of appreciation we’ve seen over the past two years. This is nothing to be concerned about; rather it suggests that the market is starting to return to some sense of normalcy.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Utah. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Wasatch County is the the only county with a percentage change in the 6.5% to 9.4% range, while Weber, Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Summit are in the 15.5% to 18.4% change range. Morgan County is the only county in the 18.5% + change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Utah from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Morgna County tops the list at 18.7%, followed by Weber at 18.4%, Salt Lake at 18%, Utah at 16.8%, Davis at 16.4%, Summit at 16%, and Wasatch at 6.7%.

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage rates did drop in June, the quarterly trend was still moving higher. Inflation—the bane of bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates—has yet to slow, which is putting upward pressure on financing costs.

That said, there are some signs that inflation is starting to soften and if this starts to show in upcoming Consumer Price Index numbers then rates will likely find a ceiling. I am hopeful this will be the case at some point in the third quarter, which is reflected in my forecast.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2023. He forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 5.9% in Q4 2022, then tapering off to 5.58% in Q1 2023 and 5.53% in Q2 2023.

Utah Days on Market

The average time it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report dropped two days compared to the same period a year ago.

Homes again sold fastest in Davis County, and every county except Summit and Wasatch saw average time on market rise compared to a year ago. The greatest drop in market time was in Summit County, where it took 19 fewer days to sell a home.

During the second quarter, it took an average of 17 days to sell a home in the region. Not only did market time fall year over year, but it took 8 fewer days for homes to sell compared to first quarter.

The market remains very competitive and, as mentioned earlier, appears to not yet be impacted by higher mortgage rates.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Utah for Q2 2022. Davis County has the lowest DOM at 11, followed by Salt Lake at 12, Utah and Weber at 14, Morgan at 22, Summit at 23, and Wasatch at 25.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The number of homes for sale in Utah has risen significantly and buyers are absorbing the additional supply. That said, higher inventory levels are forcing sellers to be a little more competitive than they were, as demonstrated by declining median list prices in several areas. I would contend that the market is not headed for any sort of correction; rather it has started to trend back to some sense of normalcy. This may be concerning to those who have become accustomed to the frenetic pace the market has experienced since the start of the pandemic, but it really is nothing to worry about.

A speedometer graph indicating a medium seller's market in Utah for Q2 2022.

Sellers still have the upper hand and well-positioned, appropriately-priced homes continue to attract significant interest from buyers. Given all the data discussed in this report, I have left the needle in the same position as the last quarter. Although the market still favors sellers, a shift may be on the way that would lead us toward a more balanced market.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market News August 3, 2022

Q2 2022 Nevada Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the greater Las Vegas real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Though employment growth in the Las Vegas area continues, the pace has been frenetic. The average monthly growth so far in 2022 has been about half as fast as 2021’s pace. That said, the market has recovered all but 6,800 of the 287,000 jobs that were lost during the pandemic. In the first quarter Gardner Report, I predicted that the area would return to pre-COVID employment levels by the spring. I am optimistic that when the June data is released, the region will have seen a full recovery. With rising employment, more residents started to look for work, which has grown the labor force quite significantly. That said, even though the unemployment rate remains higher than the U.S., it was still measured at a respectable 5.2%.

Nevada Home Sales

A total of 9,365 homes sold in the second quarter, which was a drop of 17.4% compared to the same period a year ago. Sales rose 2.7% compared to the first quarter of this year.

Year over year, fewer transactions occurred in every neighborhood contained in this report, but rose in all but five areas compared to the first quarter of 2022. The Aliante, Queens Ridge, and Centennial areas all saw solid growth.

Supply constraints have subsided, with the average number of listings almost doubling between the first and second quarters. This is good news for prospective home buyers.

Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, fell 11.2% compared to the prior quarter, suggesting that growth in closings in the third quarter may be modest.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various sub-market areas in Greater Las Vegas from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. All sub-market areas listed showed a negative year-over-year percentage change, except for Aliante, which showed a 0% change. Queensridge had a -7.5% change, followed by Centennial at -7.8%, North Las Vegas at -8.5%, Whitney at -10%, Northeast at -10.7%, Henderson at -15.1%, Green Valley at -17.9%, Anthem at -18.8%, Downtown and Southwest at -21.9%, Summerlin at -23.6%, Spring Valley at -26.8%, Southeast at -28.1%, and The Lakes / Section 10 at -31.4%.

Nevada Home Prices

Home prices rose 22.8% from a year ago to an average of $526,289. They were 8.3% higher than in the first quarter of 2022.

With the jump in interest rates, I have been closely monitoring list prices to see if higher financing costs are having an impact on them. So far, they appear not to be. Median list prices rose by more than 13% compared to the first quarter. Only Spring Valley saw list prices fall.

Year over year, prices rose by double digits in every neighborhood other than Anthem, and rose in all markets other than Spring Valley compared to the first quarter of this year.

The market appears to still be fairly bullish, but I sense that it will start to move back toward equilibrium as financing costs and affordability become greater headwinds.

A chart showing the sub-market areas and their corresponding zip codes in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various sub-market areas in Greater Las Vegas from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Queensridge tops the list with a 32.2% change, followed by The Lakes / Section 10 at 31.4%, Spring Valley at 31.2%, North Las Vegas at 30.2%, Summerlin and Green Valley at 28.6%, Whitney at 27.8%, Northeast at 27.1%, Southeast at 26.2%, Aliante at 25.8%, Centennial at 23.4%, Southwest at 23%, Downtown at 22%, Henderson at 16.4%, and Anthem at 8.3%.

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage rates did drop in June, the quarterly trend was still moving higher. Inflation—the bane of bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates—has yet to slow, which is putting upward pressure on financing costs.

That said, there are some signs that inflation is starting to soften and if this starts to show in upcoming Consumer Price Index numbers then rates will likely find a ceiling. I am hopeful this will be the case at some point in the third quarter, which is reflected in my forecast.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2023. He forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 5.9% in Q4 2022, then tapering off to 5.58% in Q1 2023 and 5.53% in Q2 2023.

Nevada Days on Market

The average time it took to sell a home in the region dropped seven days compared to the second quarter of 2021.

It took an average of 16 days to sell a home in the quarter, which was down 7 days compared to the first quarter of this year.

Days on market dropped in all neighborhoods except Anthem compared to the same period a year ago. Market time dropped in all neighborhoods other than Northeast Las Vegas (where it remained static) compared to the first quarter of the year.

The greatest drop in market time was in the Spring Valley neighborhood, where the length of time it took to sell a home fell 15 days compared to a year ago.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various sub-market areas of Greater Las Vegas from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Queensridge and North Las Vegas have the lowest DOM at 12, followed by Green Valley at 13, Southeast at 14, Summerlin, Southwest, and Centennial at 15, Whitney, The Lakes / Section 10, and Anthem at 16, Henderson and Downtown at 17, Northeast and Aliante at 19, and Spring Valley at 20.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Although listing activity and financing costs have risen, this has yet to negatively impact home sales or price growth. The growing number of homes for sale would normally cause asking prices to settle, which would favor home buyers, but so far this is not the case.

A speedometer graph indicating a medium-to-strong seller's market in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area for Q2 2022.

I expect the market to start moving somewhat toward balance, but for the time being sellers are still in the driver’s seat. Given all the data discussed here, I have left the needle in the same position as the last quarter. There are still too many unknowns preventing me from moving it one way or another. Hopefully, I will get more clarity once the summer winds down.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market News August 2, 2022

Q2 2022 Montana Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Montana real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Though the pace of job growth continues to taper, Montana still added 15,800 new jobs over the past year, which is impressive when compared to historic averages. All of Montana’s metro areas have recovered the jobs lost due to the pandemic. The unemployment rate in Montana in June was 2.6%, an increase from the all-time low of 2.3% in April. In the metro areas contained in this report, the lowest jobless rate was in Billings at 2.5%, followed by Missoula at 2.7% and Great Falls at 2.8%. I continue to be worried about the lack of workers in the state. The labor force participation rate (which is the civilian population divided by the labor force) stands at only 62.6%, close to a historic low and making it difficult for employers to find workers.

Montana Home Sales

In the second quarter, 2,359 homes sold in the markets contained in this report. This was a 2.9% increase from a year ago and more than double the number of closings in the first quarter of the year.

Higher home sales can be attributed to the 124% increase in the number of homes that came to market in the quarter.

Year over year, sales rose in four of the counties included in this report but fell in the rest of the markets. Compared to the first quarter, however, sales were up in every county other than Madison.

With significantly more homes to choose from, pending sales rose 11.7% from first quarter, suggesting that third quarter numbers may also be strong.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Montana from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Gallatin County came out on top with a 40.5% change, followed by Flathead at 36.6%, Jefferson at 12.5%, Park at 6.8%, Lewis & Clark at -8.9%, Ravalli at -18.8%, Lake at -19.3%, Missoula at -21.7%, Madison at -23.2%, and Broadwater -31.5%.

Montana Home Prices

Home prices rose 17.8% year over year to an average of $710,428 but were 12.9% lower than in the first quarter of 2022.

I have started watching list prices more closely, as they are a leading indicator of the health of the housing market. Thus far, despite rising mortgage rates and inventory levels, sellers remain confident. This is evident in the median list price going up in every county other than Gallatin compared to the prior quarter.

Although the quarterly drop may concern some, the average sale price used in this report is weighted to account for market size. If we use simple averages, prices in the second quarter were 11.9% higher than in the first quarter.

Price growth has yet to slow but, given the changing market conditions, it’s only a matter of time before it does.

AA map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Montana. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Madison and Gallatin Counties are the only counties with a percentage change in the -11% to -0.1% range, while Park and Lake are in the 0% to 9.9% change range. Jefferson and Flathead Counties are in the 10% to 19.9% change range, Missoula County is in the 20% to 29.9% change range, and Lewis & Clark, Broadwater, and Ravalli are in the 30% + change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Montana from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Broadwater County tops the list at 50.9%, followed by Lewis & Clark at 32.7%, Ravalli at 31%, Missoula at 29%, Flathead at 17.4%, Jefferson at 10.1%, Park at 3.3%, Lake at 2.8%, Madison at -4%, and Gallatin at -11.4%.

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage rates did drop in June, the quarterly trend was still moving higher. Inflation—the bane of bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates—has yet to slow, which is putting upward pressure on financing costs.

That said, there are some signs that inflation is starting to soften and if this starts to show in upcoming Consumer Price Index numbers then rates will likely find a ceiling. I am hopeful this will be the case at some point in the third quarter, which is reflected in my forecast.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2023. He forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 5.9% in Q4 2022, then tapering off to 5.58% in Q1 2023 and 5.53% in Q2 2023.

Montana Days on Market

The average time it took to sell a home dropped 31 days compared to the second quarter of 2021.

Homes sold fastest in Gallatin County. Flathead County homes took the longest time to find a buyer. All counties saw market time drop compared to a year ago.

During the quarter, it took an average of 57 days to sell a home in the region.

In comparison to the first quarter of the year, average market time fell in every market other than Jefferson (+17 days) and Broadwater (+45 days).

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Montana for Q2 2022. Gallatin County has the lowest DOM at 15, followed by Park at 21, Madison at 42, Lake at 52, Lewis & Clark at 60, Jefferson and Missoula at 64, Broadwater at 76, Ravalli at 86, and Flathead at 88.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Even with a shortage of workers, the economy remains buoyant, which is an important factor when it comes to the regional housing market, particularly for buyers. Even though the number of homes for sale has grown significantly, which normally favors buyers, demand is strong and the market remains competitive. List prices continue to rise, demonstrating that sellers remain confident even in the face of higher financing costs, which is likely discouraging for home buyers. Sellers are clearly still in control.

A speedometer graph indicating a medium-to-strong seller's market in Montana for Q2 2022.

As such, I have moved the needle a little more in the direction of sellers. Until we see list-price growth and transactional velocities slow significantly, we will not approach a balanced market.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market News August 2, 2022

Q2 2022 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Employment in Idaho continues to rise, but the pace of growth has started to taper. The addition of 22,400 jobs over the past 12 months represents a growth rate of 2.8%. Idaho’s unemployment rate in June was 2.5%, which is down from 3.7% a year ago and the lowest it’s been since records started being kept in 1976. Although jobs are being added at a slower pace, I am not concerned given the current unemployment rate.

Idaho Home Sales

In the second quarter of 2022, 6,403 homes sold, representing an annual growth rate of .8%. Sales were 23.5% higher than in the first quarter of 2022.

Listing activity was up more than 90% compared to a year ago, and the average number of homes on the market was 164% higher than in the first quarter.

Compared to the same period a year ago, sales rose in Boundary, Bonner, and Shoshone counties in the northern part of the state and were higher in Ada, Gem, and Canyon counties in Southern Idaho. Sales rose from the first quarter of 2022 in all counties except Payette, though that market saw only three fewer transactions.

Pending sales were 4.4% higher than in the first quarter of the year. It appears that buyers are taking advantage of greater choice in the market.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in North and South Idaho from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. In North Idaho, Boundary County came out on top with a 32.7% change, followed by Bonner at 32%, Shoshone at 13.5%, and Kootenai at -7.2%. In South Idaho, Ada County had a 3.3% change, followed by Gem at 1%, Canyon at 0.6%, Boise at 0%, Payette at -2.5%, Valley at -4%, and Blaine County at -30.1%.

Idaho Home Prices

The average home price in the region rose 15.6% year over year to $643,954. Sale prices were 5.1% higher than in first quarter of the year.

Compared to the first quarter of 2022, prices were higher in Kootenai and Shoshone counties in the north, and all but Gem and Blaine counties in the southern part of the state.

Prices rose by double digits in Kootenai and Shoshone counties but fell in Boundary and Bonner counties. Sale prices were higher than a year ago in all the southern counties contained in this report. In aggregate, home prices rose 2% in the Northern Idaho counties in this report and were 19.8% higher in the southern counties.

I have been watching list prices, as they are a leading indicator of the health of the housing market. In second quarter, they rose in every county other than Boundary in the Northern Idaho markets, but the southern counties of Valley, Ada, Boise, and Canyon all had lower median list prices than in the previous quarter. This suggests that the rapid pace of price growth in the area may be starting to slow.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Idaho. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Bonner and Boundary Counties were in the -12% to -0.1% change range. Payette County was the only county with a percentage change in the 0% to 7.9% range, while Shoshone and Gem are in the 8% to 15.9% change range. Kootenai, Blaine, Boise, and Ada Counties are in the 16% to 23.9% change range, and Valley County is the only county in the 24%+ change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in North and South Idaho from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. In North Idaho, Kootenai County tops the list at 21.5%, followed by Shoshone at 10.3%, Boundary at -10%, and Bonner at -11.1%. In South Idaho, Valley showed the greatest positive change at 31%, followed by Blaine at 22.4%, Boise at 22.1%, Canyon at 19.3%, Ada at 17.3%, Gem at 10.7, and Payette County at 7%.

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage rates did drop in June, the quarterly trend was still moving higher. Inflation—the bane of bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates—has yet to slow, which is putting upward pressure on financing costs.

That said, there are some signs that inflation is starting to soften and if this starts to show in upcoming Consumer Price Index numbers then rates will likely find a ceiling. I am hopeful this will be the case at some point in the third quarter, which is reflected in my forecast.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2023. He forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 5.9% in Q4 2022, then tapering off to 5.58% in Q1 2023 and 5.53% in Q2 2023.

Idaho Days on Market

The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region matched the second quarter of 2021 but fell seven days compared to the first quarter of the year.

In Northern Idaho, days on market rose in all counties except Kootenai compared to a year ago. Market time rose in every county other than Valley and Blaine in Southern Idaho.

It took an average of 83 days to sell a home in Northern Idaho and 40 days in the southern part of the state covered by this report.

Homes again sold the fastest in Ada County in the southern part of the state and in Kootenai County in Northern Idaho.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in North and South Idaho for Q2 2022. In North Idaho, Kootenai County has the lowest DOM at 62, followed by Bonner at 77, Shoshone at 91, and Boundary at 103. in South Idaho, Ada County had the lowest DOM at 16, followed by Canyon at 19, Payette at 24, Boise at 28, Gem at 32, Valley at 36, and Blaine at 127.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than over the past 18 months, and the labor market is still healthy. Even though the number of homes for sale has jumped significantly, which normally favors buyers, demand appears to still be robust. With list prices continuing to rise, sellers are clearly confident even as financing costs continue to increase. That said, the pace of price growth is slowing but overall sellers are still in control.

A speedometer graph indicating a strong seller's market in Idaho for Q2 2022.

Given all the aforementioned factors, I have left the needle in the same position as last quarter. Even though the market is doing well, slipping list prices in several Southern Idaho counties suggest that those markets may have found a price ceiling. Even so, sellers remain in the driver’s seat.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Design August 1, 2022

Setting Up Your Home Gym

With home gyms popping up left and right in recent years, many homeowners have realized the benefits of working out at home. Setting up a home gym is physically beneficial and gives purpose to empty space. In comparison to a gym membership, even with the upfront investment of purchasing equipment, a home gym can deliver savings in the long run. With far-ranging options for fitness gear and equipment online, you can tailor your home gym to your fitness needs.

Setting Up Your Home Gym

Before your first sets of lunges, pushups, and weightlifting can begin, you’ll need to decide where to build your home gym. You’ll want plenty of room for the activities and workouts you have in mind. Rooms with low ceilings or narrow walls are not well-suited for a gym. They will limit your ability to perform any kinds of jumping exercises or workouts with wide-ranging movements. This space is dedicated to physical activity and the environment should support that. If extra space is hard to come by in your home, consider taking your gym outdoors to a patio, multipurpose space, or other less commonly used area.

A space with level, solid flooring like wood, laminate, or tile is the best fit for your gym, especially if you plan on establishing a workout plan based around lifting or cardio. Having spatial awareness at all times is important while working out, so you’ll want plenty of light in your home gym. Mirrors are a common fixture in gyms. Consider adding one to your wall to sharpen your technique.

 

A young couple is doing lunges while watching a home workout video on a tablet. They are dressed in fashionable sportswear. They have matching dark exercise mats and exercising gear next to them. Large windows in the background bring light in their living room.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: AnVr

Home Gym Equipment

  • Strength training: Simple workout tools like kettlebells and dumbbells allow you to perform a variety of workouts without taking up much space. Kettlebells are a great tool for incorporating cardio workouts with added weight. Dumbbells at a lower weight are better for toning exercises, while those at heavier weights are better for low-repetition, bulk exercises.
  • Cardio training: Smaller workout tools such as jump ropes, wrist, and ankle weights will add intensity to your cardio workouts. Yoga mats provide proper support while performing core exercises or other bodyweight circuit workouts during your cardio sessions.
  • Large equipment: To get the most out of large workout equipment like treadmills, stair climbers, and bikes in your home gym, plan for them to be a significant part of your workouts.
  • Additional: Applying a layer of gym flooring will help prevent floor damage and provide added support while lifting and exercising. If you prefer music and/or video to accompany your workouts, add speakers and a TV to get the motivational juices flowing.

Establish a Routine

Your home gym is no good if it gets no use. With zero commute time to account for, arrange a workout routine that suits your daily schedule. Even if you only have 30 minutes, getting into a routine of working out is the key to building up your healthy lifestyle.

Once your home gym is set up, it can be either your individual fitness sanctuary or an opportunity to work out with others. Invite a friend to exercise via video chat and schedule times to feel the burn together. With more virtual fitness classes available now than ever, surf the web to find the classes that best fit your schedule and desired workout intensity.

For more on maximizing the functionality of the spaces in your home, read our guide to upgrading your home office: Upgrading Your Work From Home Space

 


­­­­­­Featured Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Fly View Productions

Market News August 1, 2022

Q2 2022 Eastern Washington Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Eastern Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Year over year, total employment in Eastern Washington rose by more than 17,000 jobs, representing an annual growth rate of 3.5%. Spokane County saw the fastest pace of job growth, rising by 4.7%. All other counties except Lincoln added jobs over the past 12 months. Whitman and Lincoln counties are still marginally below their pre-pandemic employment levels. Unadjusted for seasonality, the regional unemployment rate was 4.4%; the seasonally adjusted rate was 4.6%. The highest jobless rate was in Franklin County at 6.2% and the lowest rate was in Whitman County at 4.1%.

Eastern Washington Home Sales

During second quarter, 3,464 homes sold, which was 6.9% lower than a year ago but more than 47% higher than the first quarter of 2022.

Sales growth this spring came as listing activity jumped. The average number of homes on the market was 131% higher than in the first quarter.

Year over year, sales increased in Lincoln County but fell across the balance of the region. However, compared to the first quarter, sales rose significantly across the board.

Higher inventory levels also allowed pending sales to rise by more than 34% from the first quarter. The spring market was clearly a good one, even as mortgage rates rose.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Eastern Washington from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Six out of the seven counties listed show negative percentage year-over-year changes: Lincoln at 7.1%, followed by Benton at -0.1%, Franklin at -4.1%, Walla Walla at -6.5%, Spokane at -7.6%, Grant at -14.6%, and Whitman at -16.6%.

Eastern Washington Home Prices

The average home price in Eastern Washington rose 16.3% from last year to $475,985. Average prices were 9.4% higher than in the first quarter.

Compared to the first quarter of 2022, prices rose in all counties except Benton, where they were down a modest .8%.

Every county other than Lincoln saw average prices rise by more than 10% compared to the same time last year. Grant County prices rose a very impressive 26.8%.

I have started tracking list prices, as they are a leading indicator of the direction of the housing market. Thus far, rising mortgage rates and growing inventory levels have yet to dampen seller confidence, with median list prices up an average of 9.9% from the first quarter.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Eastern Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Lincoln County is the only county with a percentage change in the 3% to 6.9% range, while Whitman and Walla Walla are in the 7% to 10.9% change range. Franklin County is the only county in the 11% to 14.9 % change range, Benton and Spokane are in the 15% to 18.9% change range, and Grant County is the only county in the 19% + change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Eastern Washington from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Grant County tops the list at 26.8%, followed by Spokane at 16.3%, Benton at 15.7%, Franklin at 14.7%, Walla Walla at 10.5%, Whitman at 10.4%, and Lincoln County at 3.2%.

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage rates did drop in June, the quarterly trend was still moving higher. Inflation—the bane of bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates—has yet to slow, which is putting upward pressure on financing costs.

That said, there are some signs that inflation is starting to soften and if this starts to show in upcoming Consumer Price Index numbers then rates will likely find a ceiling. I am hopeful this will be the case at some point in the third quarter, which is reflected in my forecast.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2023. He forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 5.9% in Q4 2022, then tapering off to 5.58% in Q1 2023 and 5.53% in Q2 2023.

Eastern Washington Days on Market

The average time it took to sell a home in Eastern Washington in the second quarter of 2022 was 17 days, which is 3 fewer days than the same period a year ago.

Compared to the first quarter of this year, average days on market fell in every county other than Lincoln, where it took an average of four more days to sell a home.

All counties other than Spokane (where market time was unchanged) saw the average number of days it took for a house to sell drop compared to a year ago.

It took an average of eight fewer days to sell a home in the quarter than it did during the first quarter of 2022.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Eastern Washington for Q2 2022. Spokane County has the lowest DOM at 8, followed by Franklin at 9, Benton at 11, Whitman at 15, Walla Walla at 19, Grant at 22, and Lincoln at 36.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Employment in Eastern Washington continues to grow, which is a positive for the housing market. Although the number of homes for sale jumped significantly this spring, which typically favors home buyers, home sales and days on market suggest that demand remains strong, and the market is still competitive.

A speedometer graph indicating a medium-to-strong seller's market in Eastern Washington for Q2 2022.

With list prices continuing to rise, sellers are clearly confident even in the face of rising financing costs. Though the pace of price growth has slowed, sellers are still in the driver’s seat. As such, I have moved the needle a little more in the direction of sellers. Until listing price growth shows further slowing, we will not approach a balanced market.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market News August 1, 2022

Q2 2022 Central Washington Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Central Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Central Washington has added 5,558 jobs over the past 12 months, which represents an annual growth rate of 2.5%. With the addition of these jobs, the area has now returned to its pre-pandemic employment levels. Although the Central Washington region has seen a full recovery, Kittitas County is still lagging with a shortfall of 2,600 jobs. Adjusted for seasonality, unemployment levels in Central Washington were 5.4%, down from 6.2% a year ago. The lowest unemployment rate was in Chelan County, where it was 3.9%. The area’s highest jobless rate was in Yakima County, where 6% of the labor force was still without work.

Central Washington Home Sales

Sales in Central Washington fell 2.2% from the second quarter of 2021. A total of 1,359 homes sold, which was lower than a year ago but 33% higher than the first quarter of 2022. The spring housing market was clearly a busy one.

Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, rose more than 70% compared to first quarter. This suggests that closings in the third quarter will likely be strong.

Year-over-year, sales rose in Douglas, Yakima, and Okanogan counties, but fell in Chelan and Kittitas counties. However, compared to the first quarter of 2022, sales rose significantly across the board.

Inventory levels rose more than 36% year over year and were up 82% from the first quarter. There are considerably more choices in the market, which is good news for buyers.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Central Washington from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Okanogan County came out on top with a 12.5% change, followed by Douglas at 5.1%, Yakima at 1.1%, Chelan at -6.3%, and Kittitas at -15.1%.

Central Washington Home Prices

The average home price in Central Washington rose 12.2% year over year to $521,894. Prices were 3.9% higher than in the first quarter of this year.

I have been watching list prices as they are a leading indicator regarding the direction the market may take. Median list prices were an average of 10.7% higher than in the first quarter. Only Kittitas County saw asking prices pull back, but I do not see this as a concern at the present time.

Only Douglas County saw year-over-year prices rise by less than 10%. Compared to the first quarter, prices rose in three counties, but fell modestly in Kittitas and Douglas counties.

Although interest rates rose to an average of more than 5.5% by the end of second quarter, sellers still appear to be confident in the market. This was demonstrated by rising list prices even in the face of more competition with the increase in inventory.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Central Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Douglas County is the only county with a percentage change in the 5% to 7.9% range, while Chelan and Yakima are in the 11% to 13.9% change range. Okanogan and Kittitas Counties are in the 17% + change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Central Washington from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Kittitas County tops the list at 18.5%, followed by Okanogan at 18.2%, Yakima at 13.3%, Chelan at 13.1%, and Douglas County at 5.7%.

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage rates did drop in June, the quarterly trend was still moving higher. Inflation—the bane of bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates—has yet to slow, which is putting upward pressure on financing costs.

That said, there are some signs that inflation is starting to soften and if this starts to show in upcoming Consumer Price Index numbers then rates will likely find a ceiling. I am hopeful this will be the case at some point in the third quarter, which is reflected in my forecast.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2023. He forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 5.9% in Q4 2022, then tapering off to 5.58% in Q1 2023 and 5.53% in Q2 2023.

Central Washington Days on Market

The average time it took to sell a home in Central Washington in the second quarter was 31 days.

During the quarter, it took six fewer days to sell a home in Central Washington than it did a year ago.

Two counties saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop compared to a year ago. Kittitas and Douglas counties saw no change and market time in Chelan County was up five days. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, market time fell across the region.

On average, it took 24 fewer days to sell a home in the second quarter than it did in the first.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Central Washington for Q2 2022. Douglas County has the lowest DOM at 14, followed by Kittitas at 17, Chelan at 25, Okanogan at 37, and Yakima at 64.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Jobs continue to be added to the local economy and the labor force is expanding, which are both positive for the housing market. Inventory levels have risen significantly, but data on pending sales and market time suggests that the market is still buoyant. List-price growth suggests that sellers are still confident even with rising interest rates and considerably more homes for sale. However, the pace of home-price appreciation is starting to cool, which may be of some solace to home buyers.

A speedometer graph indicating a medium seller's market in Central Washington for Q2 2022.

All things considered, I have decided to move the needle a little more in the direction of home sellers. The market is going to start moving, albeit slowly, toward some sort of balance, but for the time being, sellers remain in control.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market News July 29, 2022

Q2 2022 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Colorado continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has slowed, albeit modestly. At the time of writing this report, the state’s employment had increased by 124,600 jobs over the past 12 months, which represents an annual growth rate of 4.6%. The state unemployment rate in May was 3.5%. Regionally, unemployment rates ranged from a low of 2.4% in Boulder to a high of 3.4% in the Grand Junction and Greeley metropolitan areas.

Colorado Home Sales

In the second quarter, 12,839 homes sold, a drop of 8% compared to a year ago but 57% higher than in the first quarter of this year.

Year over year, sales rose in only three counties covered by this report and fell in the rest of the region. That said, there was a palpable increase in sales across the board compared to the first quarter of 2022.

The significant jump in sales from the first quarter can likely be attributed to the fact that inventory levels spiked, rising more than 190% from the first quarter.

Pending sales (an indicator of future closings) rose 39% from the first quarter, signifying that the third quarter may show further growth in sales activity.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. The counties with a positive percentage year-over-year change are Clear Creek at 30.8%, El Paso at 3.2%, and Park at 1.7%. Gilpin County had a 0% change. The counties with a negative year-over-year change are Adams at -3.4%, Arapahoe at -4.2%, Jefferson at -5.7%, Weld at -7.4%, Denver at -9%, Larimer at -10.6%, Douglas at -16.7%, and Boulder at -20.2%.

Colorado Home Prices

The average home sale price ($700,369) was 14.1% higher than the same period in 2021. Prices were also 9.8% higher than in the first quarter of this year.

Price growth remains strong even in the face of significantly higher inventory levels and mortgage rates, which is an impressive achievement.

Year over year, prices rose by double digits across all markets except El Paso and Arapahoe counties. Prices rose in all counties other than Gilpin (-10.3%) and Clear Creek (-1%) from the first quarter.

With the increase in mortgage rates and the number of homes for sale, I have started to watch list prices more closely. Compared to the first quarter, median list prices are lower in 9 of the 12 counties included in this report. Although it’s too early to say whether this is a trend we should be worried about, I will be watching how prices move during the summer, as it may be an indicator that the market is starting to soften.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Colorado. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. El Paso and Arapahoe Counties are the only counties with a percentage change in the 7% to 10.9% range, Boulder and Gilpin counties are in the 11% to 14.9% change range, Larimer, Weld, Adams, Park, Jefferson, and Douglas are in the 15% to 18.9% change range, Denver County is in the 19% to 22.9% change range, and Clear Creek County is the sole county in the 23% + change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Colorado from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Clear Creek County tops the list at 23.7%, followed by Denver at 22.3%, Larimer at 18.6%, Douglas at 16.4%, Park at 16.2%, Weld at 15.5%, Adams at 15.2%, Jefferson at 15.1%, Gilpin at 14.2%, Boulder at 11.3%, Arapahoe at 9.9%, and finally El Paso at 7.9%.

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage rates did drop in June, the quarterly trend was still moving higher. Inflation—the bane of bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates—has yet to slow, which is putting upward pressure on financing costs.

That said, there are some signs that inflation is starting to soften and if this starts to show in upcoming Consumer Price Index numbers then rates will likely find a ceiling. I am hopeful this will be the case at some point in the third quarter, which is reflected in my forecast.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2023. He forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 5.9% in Q4 2022, then tapering off to 5.58% in Q1 2023 and 5.53% in Q2 2023.

Colorado Days on Market

The average time it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report fell eight days compared to the same period in 2021.

The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in six counties, remained static in three, and rose in the other three compared to the same quarter a year ago.

It took an average of only 10 days to sell a home in the region, which is down 15 days compared to the first quarter of the year.

Compared to the first quarter of 2022, average market time fell across the board, with significant drops in Gilpin (-41 days), Park (-25 days), and Clear Creek (-23 days) counties.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado for Q2 2022. Arapahoe, Adams, and Jefferson Counties have the lowest DOM at 7, followed by Denver, Douglas, and Clear Creek at 8, El Paso at 9, Larimer at 10, Weld and Boulder at 11, Gilpin at 12, and Park at 17.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The Colorado economy remains robust and continues to grow. As it stands today, I anticipate income growth here will continue to outpace the nation. The 221,000 current job openings in the state are evidence of significant employer demand, which will lead to higher wages. Housing demand is still remarkably strong, even in light of the rapid increase in the number of homes for sale and rising financing costs.

A speedometer graph indicating a medium seller's market in Colorado for Q2 2022.

As mentioned earlier, I will be watching movement in list prices through the summer as they are a leading indicator in respect to the health of the market. Although we saw some softening in the pace of regional list price growth during second quarter and median list prices pulling back in some markets, it is too early to state that this is a pattern. As such, I am leaving the needle in the same position as the first quarter. The growing number of homes for sale and lower list prices in some markets should favor buyers, but this is offset for the time being by solid demand.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market News July 29, 2022

Q2 2022 Southern California Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Southern California real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Total employment in the counties covered by this report has risen more than 600,000 jobs over the past year, recovering 97.3% of the jobs lost due to the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles County still has the largest shortfall (-254,000 jobs), followed by Orange County (-44,100) and San Diego County (-15,000). Riverside and San Bernardino counties are now well above pre-pandemic employment levels. The region’s unemployment rate in May was 3.6%, down from 8.2% a year ago. The lowest rates were in Orange County (2.4%) and San Diego County (2.7%). The highest unemployment rate was in Los Angeles County, where 4.5% of the labor force was without a job. The Inland Empire continues to outperform, and I am hopeful that the rest of the region will return to pre-pandemic employment levels by the end of the year. However, it’s likely that Los Angeles County may take somewhat longer to fully recover due to its size.

Southern California Home Sales

In the second quarter, 47,596 homes sold, down 19% from a year ago but up 13.1% compared to the first quarter of the year.

Pending home sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were down modestly from the first quarter. However, I still expect that the summer will see a decent number of sales.

The largest drop in sales was in Orange County, but all markets saw significant declines. That said, the spring market was in place in San Diego, Los Angeles, and Orange counties, which experienced double-digit percentage increases in sales compared to the prior quarter.

Listing activity has risen across the region, which has given buyers more in the way of choice. That may explain, to a certain degree, why pending sales have pulled back; buyers are not feeling as pressured as they were when inventory was very low.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Southern California from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. All five counties listed show negative percentage year-over-year changes: San Bernardino at -10.6%, Riverside at -14.0%, Los Angeles at -17.5%, San Diego at -23.6%, and Orange at -28%.

Southern California Home Prices

Home prices in the second quarter rose 10.9% compared to a year ago and were 5.4% higher than in first quarter of 2022.

Rising mortgage rates have not had as much of an impact as some expected, but increased financing costs appear to have taken at least some of the heat off the market, as demonstrated by the slowing pace of price growth compared to 2021.

There was double-digit price growth in every county other than Los Angeles. Riverside County led the way with prices rising by 16.7%. The rest of the region also saw very impressive sale price growth.

With relatively high mortgage rates and more homes coming to market, I have started to watch list prices closely. Compared to the first quarter, median list prices are still up an average of 8.7%, suggesting that sellers remain rather bullish.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Southern California. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Los Angeles County is the only county with a percentage change in the 8% to 9.9% range, while Orange County is the only county in the 12% to 13.9% change range. San Bernardino and San Diego are in the 14% to 15.9 % change range, and Riverside is the only county in the 16% + range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Southern California from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Riverside County tops the list at 16.7%, followed by San Diego at 15.9%, San Bernardino at 15%, Orange at 13.8%, and Los Angeles County at 8.8%.

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage rates did drop in June, the quarterly trend was still moving higher. Inflation—the bane of bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates—has yet to slow, which is putting upward pressure on financing costs.

That said, there are some signs that inflation is starting to soften and if this starts to show in upcoming Consumer Price Index numbers then rates will likely find a ceiling. I am hopeful this will be the case at some point in the third quarter, which is reflected in my forecast.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2023. He forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 5.9% in Q4 2022, then tapering off to 5.58% in Q1 2023 and 5.53% in Q2 2023.

Southern California Days on Market

In the second quarter of 2022, the average time it took to sell a home in the region was 16 days, which was 2 fewer days than a year ago and 5 fewer days than in the first quarter of the year.

Compared to the first quarter of 2022, days on market dropped in all counties covered by this report, which was impressive given the higher number of homes for sale.

Homes in San Diego County continue to sell at a faster rate than other markets in the region. All counties other than San Bernardino (where it took one more day for homes to sell than a year ago) saw market time drop.

With inventory levels rising, some may think that the market is set for a correction, but I disagree. Sales are still higher than in 2019 and it took half the time to sell a home in the second quarter of this year than it did during the same period in 2019.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Southern California for Q2 2022. San Diego county has the lowest DOM at 12, followed by Orange at 14, Los Angeles at 18, San Bernardino at 19, and Riverside at 20.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The trend in the job recovery remains positive, and the prospect of a return of all the jobs lost due to the pandemic is becoming more palpable. The housing market is still performing well, even in the face of higher inventory levels and rising financing costs. That said, the frenetic pace of activity of the past 18 months or so will slow, but not to a degree that is concerning.

A speedometer graph indicating a medium seller's market in Southern California for Q2 2022.

More listings led to more sales, which is a little counterintuitive especially given far higher mortgage rates than we’ve seen in years. The market remains favorable to home sellers, and they are still in the driver’s seat.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.