Market News August 3, 2023

Q2 2023 Nevada Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the greater Las Vegas real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.


Regional Economic Overview

Clark County continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to taper. The market has added 49,200 new jobs over the past 12 months. Although that was the slowest annual growth rate since before the pandemic, it still represents an impressive increase of 4.6%. The non-seasonally adjusted jobless rate in May was a respectable 5.6%. This was up .01% over April, but down from 8.1% the second quarter of 2022. When adjusted for seasonality, the rate was also 5.6%, down from 5.9% in the second quarter of 2022. My latest employment forecast for the Las Vegas metro area suggests that employment growth will continue to taper, but that over 43,000 new jobs will have been created in 2023.

Nevada Home Sales

A total of 6,908 homes sold in the second quarter of the year, which was a drop of 26.3% compared to the second quarter of 2022. However, sales continued the upward momentum we saw in the first quarter and were an impressive 23.7% higher than in the first quarter of the year.

Year over year, sales fell significantly across the board. However, sales rose in every neighborhood compared to the first quarter of 2023. Every area except Aliante, The Lakes/Section 8, and Northeast Las Vegas saw double-digit gains.

Even more impressive was the fact that sales rose from the first quarter despite the 2.5% drop in the average number of homes for sale.

Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, rose 10.7% compared to the first quarter, suggesting that the market may see further growth in sales in the third quarter of 2023.

A graph showing the annual change in home sales by sub-market area for Nevada from Q2 2022 to Q2 2023. The Lakes/Section 10 had the least drastic change at -18.2%, while Aliante had the largest change at -36.2%. Areas like North Las Vegas and Queensridge were in the middle at around -26%.

Nevada Home Prices

Sale prices fell 10.5% year over year but rose 2.1% compared to the first quarter of 2023. The average home sale price in the area was $481,581.

Median list prices rose 3.9% from the first quarter of the year. The only neighborhood where list prices fell was in Southeast Las Vegas. Even there, the decline was a very modest 1.3%.

Year over year, prices fell in every market other than Downtown. However, compared to the first quarter of this year, prices rose across the board.

It would be natural to think that prices should have fallen further given deteriorating affordability and far higher mortgage rates than we have seen in a number of years; however, that does not appear to be the case.

A chart showing the sub-market areas and their corresponding zip codes in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by sub-market area in Nevada from Q2 2022 to Q2 2023. Downtown tops the list at 1.1%, while Queensridge had the greatest decline at -19.6%. Centennial and Southwest were toward the middle at around -8%.

Mortgage Rates

Although they were less erratic than the first quarter, mortgage rates unfortunately trended higher and ended the quarter above 7%. This was due to the short debt ceiling impasse, as well as several economic datasets that suggested the U.S. economy was not slowing at the speed required by the Federal Reserve.

While the June employment report showed fewer jobs created than earlier in the year, as well as downward revisions to prior gains, inflation has not sufficiently slowed. Until it does, rates cannot start to trend consistently lower. With the economy not slowing as fast as expected, I have adjusted my forecast: Rates will hold at current levels in third quarter and then start to trend lower through the fall. Although there are sure to be occasional spikes, my model now shows the 30-year fixed rate breaking below 6% next spring.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from Q2 2021 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q2 2024. After the 6.79% figure in Q4 2022, 6.35% in Q1 2023, and 6.51% in Q2 2023, he forecasts mortgage rates going to 6.55% in Q3 2023, 6.31% in Q4 2023, 6.03% in Q1 2024, and 5.72% in Q2 2024.

Nevada Days on Market

The average time it took to sell a home in the region rose 26 days compared to the second quarter of 2022.

It took an average of 42 days to sell a home in the second quarter, which was 13 fewer days than it took in the first quarter of 2023.

Days on market rose in all neighborhoods compared to the same period in 2022. However, average market time fell in every neighborhood compared to the first quarter of this year.

Tighter inventory levels are offsetting higher financing costs, which is lowering average market time.

A bar graph showing the days on market by sub-market area for homes in Nevada in Q2 2023. Queensridge had the lowest DOM at 36, while Aliante had the highest at 55. Spring Valley and Henderson were in the middle at around 40 days on market.


This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Just when you think you can write off Las Vegas, it comes back to prove you wrong. The area’s housing market is resilient and is likely to continue being that way. Every index other than mortgage rates is favoring sellers right now. Inventory levels are down. Pending and closed sales are up, as are list and sale prices.

A speedometer graph indicating a balanced market bordering on a seller's market in Nevada for Q2 2023.

While the market currently favors home sellers, they are not in a completely dominant position. That said, given everything I’ve shared in this report, I have pushed the needle more in their favor.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.