Market News • November 1, 2023

Q3 2023 Montana Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

Q3 2023 Montana Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of select counties of the Montana real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

The pace of job growth in Montana continues to taper. The state added only 6,000 jobs, which represents an annual growth rate of 1.2%. This is the slowest pace of growth in the state since pandemic influences started to come into play.

Regional variations continued: the Billings metro area lost 600 jobs, Great Falls employment was flat, and the Missoula metro area saw employment rise 1,100 jobs.

The state unemployment rate in August was 2.5%, which was down from 2.7% in the same period of 2022. All metro areas in this report showed unemployment rates of 2.5%.

Montana Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 1,959 homes sold in the counties covered by this report. This was a 10.8% decline from the third quarter of 2022 but 7% higher than in the second quarter of 2023.

❱ Listing activity was 9.6% higher than during the same period of 2022 and 30.2% higher than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Year over year, sales fell in all but three markets. Compared to the second quarter of this year, sales were up in every county other than Broadwater and Ravalli, where sales were down 37% and 7.4%, respectively.

❱ Pending sales fell 24.2% quarter over quarter, suggesting that closings in the final quarter of the year may be down.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in Montana from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Park County had the least change at 1.5% increase, Jefferson County and Lake County had the largest increases of 12.5% and 12.3% respectively while the rest of the counties had a decrease and Broadwater had the largest decrease at 19 percent.

Montana Home Prices

❱ Home prices were up 9.6% year over year. The average sale price was $758,641, which was 12% higher than in the second quarter of 2023.

❱ The growth in home prices is a little surprising given rising financing costs, more choice in the market, and the fact that list prices were higher in most markets than in the second quarter of 2023.

❱ Year over year, prices rose in six counties and fell in four. Compared to the second quarter of this year, prices rose in every county other than Lake and Park.

❱ So far, higher mortgage rates have not been much of a deterrent, at least not yet. I expected price growth to start tapering by now, but it appears I was a little premature. That said, I stand by my belief that high mortgage rates will begin to impact price growth as we move toward the end of the year.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Montana. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Flathead, Broadwater, and Gallatin had changes greater than 11% and are represented in the corresponding navy color. Missoula and Ravalli were in the 4.5-10.9% range. Lewis & Clark and Jefferson were in the -2 to 4.4% range. Madison, Park, and Lake Counties were in the -8.6 to -15% range and are represented in the light grey color on the map.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by county in Montana from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Jefferson County had the least change at -1.6% while Lake had the greatest decrease of 14.6% and Broadwater had the greatest increase of 20.3%.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates continued trending higher in the third quarter of 2023 and are now at levels we have not seen since the fall of 2000. Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rate (yield) on 10-year treasuries, and they move in the opposite direction of the economy. Unfortunately for mortgage rates, the economy remains relatively buoyant, and though inflation is down significantly from its high, it is still elevated. These major factors and many minor ones are pushing Treasury yields higher, which is pushing mortgage rates up. Given the current position of the Federal Reserve, which intends to keep rates “higher for longer,” it is unlikely that home buyers will get much reprieve when it comes to borrowing costs any time soon.

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from Q3 2021 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q3 2024. In Q3 2023 Mortgage Rates hit 7.04% and Matthew Gardner predicts rates will decrease steadily over the next 4 quarters.

Montana Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home rose six days compared to the same period in 2022. Time on market fell 11 days compared to the second quarter of 2023.

❱ Homes sold fastest in Park County while homes in Flathead County took the longest time to sell. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, market time fell in Missoula, Lewis and Clark, Broadwater, Jefferson, and Park counties but rose in the rest of the region.

❱ During the third quarter, it took an average of 68 days to sell a home in the markets covered by this report.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of this year, average market time rose in only three counties (Lake, Lewis and Clark, and Madison), was flat in Ravalli, and fell everywhere else.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in Montana in Q3 2023. Park County is at the top with the least days on market of 29 and Flathead is at the bottom of the graph with the most days on market of 103. Jefferson and Broadwater Counties are in the middle with 66 and 71 days on market respectively.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

As mentioned earlier, it doesn’t appear that rising mortgage rates have had the same negative effect in Montana that has been felt across most of the country. In the third quarter, home sales and sale/ list prices rose while market time fell, which are all factors that favor sellers. However, rising inventory and falling pending sales would suggest that the market may be ready to shift toward buyers.

A speedometer graph indicating the market in Montana for Q3 2023. The needle points to the right half of the “balanced market” portion, toward “seller’s market.”

Although the market is expected to slow, it’s too early to suggest that it will favor buyers any time soon. Given all these factors, the needle stays in the balanced quadrant but moved slightly in favor of home sellers.

Market News • November 1, 2023

Q3 2023 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

The annual pace of employment growth in the state continues to slow. However, the addition of 22,400 new jobs since the third quarter of 2022 represents an impressive 2.7% growth rate and is well above the national rate of 2.1%. While I expect the pace of job growth to continue to cool, jobs will still be added for the balance of the year. My current forecast calls for statewide employment to increase 2.5% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024.

With the exception of Lewiston, where employment levels were static, all of Idaho’s metro areas had solid year-over-year nonfarm job gains. Idaho Falls saw the greatest increase at 4.2%, followed by Pocatello (+3.3%), Coeur d’Alene (+3%), Boise (+2.7%), and Twin Falls (2.6%).

The state unemployment rate was a healthy 3%, which was marginally above 2.8% in the third quarter of 2022. Regionally, the lowest jobless rate was in Idaho Falls at 2.7%. Boise’s unemployment rate was 3.5%. The highest rate was in Coeur d’Alene, where 4.5% of the workforce was actively looking for work.

Idaho Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 4,945 homes sold, which was a drop of 6.2% from the third quarter of 2022 and 2.7% lower than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Listing activity was up 11.3% from the second quarter of the year, which appears to have resulted in rising sales in most market areas.

❱ Relative to the same quarter in 2022, sales fell in all the northern counties covered by this report and in every county other than Canyon and Blaine in the Southern Idaho markets. However, compared to the second quarter of this year, sales rose in all markets other than Boundary County in Northern Idaho and Canyon, Gem, and Ada counties in the southern part of the state.

❱ Pending sales in the third quarter were lower than in the second quarter of 2023, suggesting that sales may slow in the final quarter of the year.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in North and South Idaho from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. In the North Kootenai had the least change at -7.9% and Boundary had the greatest change at -20.4%. In the South, Blaine had the least change at 1.7% and Canyon County had the greatest increase at 5.4% while Ada had the greatest decrease of 10.6%.

Idaho Home Prices

❱ The average home price in the region rose 2.7% year over year to $636,148. Sale prices were 5.1% higher than in the second quarter of 2023.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of 2023, prices rose an average of 5.9% in the northern market areas covered by this report. Sale prices were up 4.2% in the southern part of the state.

❱ Only one county in the northern market areas and two in the southern markets saw prices fall year over year. Compared to the second quarter, prices rose in all markets other than Shoshone and Boundary counties in the northern market area.

❱ Median list prices were up 9.5% from the second quarter. However, in the southern part of the state, every county except Payette and Blaine counties saw list prices fall. Only Boundary County in the northern markets saw list prices fall. This may suggest that sellers are starting to adjust their expectations given significant increases in financing costs.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Idaho. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Bonner, Valley, Gem, Payette, and Blaine had changes of more than 16% and are represented in the corresponding navy color. Kootenai, Shoshone, and Boise Counties were in the 0-8.8% range. Canyon and Ada were in the -0.9 to -6.5% range. Boundary County was in -6.6% to -14% range and is represented in the light grey color on the map.

Mortgage Rates

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

Idaho Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the region rose 16 days compared to the third quarter of 2022. It took an average of nine fewer days for a home to sell than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ In both Northern and Southern Idaho, days on market rose in all counties compared to the same period of 2022. Compared to the second quarter of this year, market time rose in every county in the northern part of the state. In the southern areas, market time fell in all counties except Payette and Gem.

❱ It took an average of 87 days to sell a home in Northern Idaho and 55 days in the southern counties covered by this report.

❱ Homes sold the fastest in Ada County in the southern part of the state. In Northern Idaho, Shoshone and Kootenai counties had the shortest market time.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in North and South Idaho in Q3 2023. In the North, Kootenai and Shoshone had the least days on market at 82, and Bonner had the most with 94. In the South, Ada had the least of 34 and Blaine County had the most days on market with 86, Valley sits in the middle of the graph at 52.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

There appears to be a disconnect in the market right now. Pending and closed sales are down while listings are higher, which should favor home buyers. However, list and sale prices are higher, which typically favors sellers.

Given the rapid increases in home prices over the past two years, significantly higher mortgage rates will start impacting the market at some point. The question is when.

A speedometer graph indicating the market in Idaho for Q3 2023. The meter is directly in the middle in the “balanced market” portion in the center.

All things considered, the market favors neither buyers or sellers. As such, the needle stays in the balanced quadrant, with neither side having the upper hand.

Market News • October 31, 2023

Q3 2023 Central Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

Q3 2023 Central Washington Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of select counties of the Central Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

Central Washington job growth ground to a halt, adding only 762 jobs since the third quarter of 2022, which represents a growth rate of .4%. Although Yakima and Douglas counties added jobs (1,900 and 159, respectively), this was offset by employment levels falling in the other three counties.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Central Washington was 4.9% in the third quarter, matching the level during the same period of 2022. The lowest unemployment rate was in Chelan County at 3.9%. The region’s highest jobless rate was in Kittitas County, where 5.5% of the labor force was without work.

Central Washington Home Sales

❱ There were 1,131 home sales in Central Washington in the third quarter of 2023, representing a decline of 20.9% from the same quarter in 2022. Sales were 11.1% higher than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Year over year, sales fell significantly across the board. However, there were solid increases in all counties compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ Pending sales, an indicator of future closings, were flat compared to the previous quarter, suggesting that market momentum may take a pause in the final quarter of 2023.

❱ Inventory levels were down 17.7% from the second quarter. The market remains remarkably tight, and I do not anticipate any improvement through the end of the year.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in Central Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Douglas had the least change at -13.3%, while Kittitas had the largest change at -30.8%. Chelan is in the middle with a 19.2% decrease.

Central Washington Home Prices

❱ The average home price in Central Washington fell 3.1% year over year to $500,399. Prices were 4.6% higher than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Compared to the third quarter of 2022, prices fell in every county except Yakima. Compared to the second quarter of this year, prices rose in Okanogan (+1.9%), Yakima (+4%), and Chelan (+13%) counties. Prices fell modestly in Douglas and Kittitas counties, where they were 1.6% and 2.8% lower, respectively.

❱ Median list prices rose in Yakima and Douglas counties but fell in the rest of the markets compared to the second quarter of the year. It seems that sellers may be starting to respond to the far higher mortgage rates that buyers are facing.

❱ Inventory levels remain remarkably low, which is supporting home values. But the market is starting to be impacted by the highest mortgage rates we’ve seen in over two decades. This means market conditions are apt to be somewhat muted during the fall and winter months.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Central Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Yakima County had a change of more than 2% and is represented in the corresponding navy color. Chelan was in the 1.9 to -1% range. Okanogan was in the -1.1% to -4% range. Douglas County was in -4.1% to -7% range. Kittitas was in the -7.1% to -10% range and is represented in the light grey color on the map.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by county in Central Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Chelan had the lowest change at -0.2% and Kittitas had the biggest decrease at -10% while Yakima had the greatest increase at 1.2 percent.

Mortgage Rates

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

Central Washington Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in Central Washington in the third quarter of 2023 was 47 days.

❱ Average market time rose in all counties year over year, but fell in every county other than Kittitas compared to the second quarter of 2023.

❱ It took ten more days to sell a home in Central Washington than it did during the third quarter of 2022.

❱ On average, it took six fewer days to sell a home in the third quarter of 2023 than it did in the second.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in Central Washington in Q3 2023. Douglas County had the lowest DOM at 33, while Yakima County had the highest at 70. Kittitas is in the middle of the chart at 41 days.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Listing activity declined across the region, but this was due to a major drop in the number of homes for sale in Yakima County. All other areas saw inventory levels rise. Furthermore, while list prices were up 16% from the second quarter on a regional level, they were modestly lower in Okanogan, Chelan, and Kittitas counties.

In all, this makes for a somewhat confusing market where it’s unclear whether buyers or sellers have the upper hand.

Far higher mortgage rates combined with declining affordability may have factored into sellers lowering their asking prices in some counties. This should favor home buyers, but low inventory levels give sellers a bit of an advantage. Ultimately, the market is currently lacking direction. Therefore, the needle swings back toward the middle.

A speedometer graph indicating the market in Central Washington for Q3 2023. The meter is directly in the middle in the “balanced market” portion in the center.

Market News • October 31, 2023

Q3 2023 Eastern Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

Q3 2023 Eastern Washington Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of select counties of the Eastern Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

Year over year, Eastern Washington gained 4,515 jobs, representing a significant slowdown from the pace of growth during the post-pandemic recovery. On a percentage basis, the region’s job market grew by only .9%. The fastest growing county was Spokane, where employment rose 2.2%. This was followed by Walla Walla (+1.4%) and Benton (+1.1%) counties. Employment growth was negative in the rest of the markets contained in this report.

Unadjusted for seasonality, the regional unemployment rate was 4.2%, which is down from 5.2% during the same period in 2022. When seasonally adjusted, the jobless rate was 4.4%, which was down from 5.5% at the same time in 2022.

Eastern Washington Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 2,647 homes sold. This was 21.2% lower than in the third quarter of 2022 but was up 1.8% compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ The modest increase in sales may be attributable to the 35% increase in the number of homes for sale. Even more impressive was that sales grew in the face of significantly higher mortgage rates.

❱ Year over year, sales fell across the region except in Lincoln County, where they were flat. However, compared to the second quarter of this year, sales were higher in Spokane, Benton, and Franklin counties.

❱ Pending sales fell 6.8%, which suggests that sales were likely pulled forward due to rising interest rates and that closings in the final quarter of 2023 may also be down.

A graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in Eastern Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Lincoln had 0% change, while Whitman had the largest change at -38.1%. Spokane is in the middle with a 20% decrease.

Eastern Washington Home Prices

❱ Year over year, the average home price in Eastern Washington rose .8% to $466,007. Prices rose 3.4% compared to the second quarter of 2023.

❱ Of note was that median list prices rose 4.4% between the second and third quarters of this year. Sellers still appear to be confident in the value of their homes despite mortgage rates that are at their highest levels in over two decades.

❱ Prices rose in five of the counties contained in this report but fell in two when compared to the same period in 2022. The same was true for quarterly growth, with average prices rising in every county other than Whitman and Walla Walla.

❱ Though home price growth was positive, it has certainly slowed. Some of this may be attributable to increased supply levels, but I believe that mortgage rates are acting as the most significant headwind. I expect price growth to slow further as we enter the final quarter of the year, and there’s a possibility it will turn negative across the region.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Eastern Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Grant County had a change of more than 5% and is represented in the corresponding navy color. Franklin and Walla Walla were in the 1.5-4.9% range. Lincoln and Spokane were in the -2% to 1.4% range. Benton County was in -5.5% to -2.1% range. Whitman was in the -5.6% to -9% range and is represented in the light grey color on the map.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by county in Eastern Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Lincoln had the lowest change at 0.3% and Whitman had the biggest decrease at -9% while Grant had the greatest increase at 5.2 percent.

Mortgage Rates

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

Eastern Washington Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in Eastern Washington in the third quarter of 2023 was 37 days, which is 13 more days than during the same period of 2022.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of this year, average days on market fell in Grant, Lincoln, Franklin, and Whitman counties but rose in the rest of the markets. In aggregate, market time was down by one day.

❱ All counties saw market time rise compared to the same period in 2022.

❱ Buyers were still actively looking during the quarter, but they were a little choosier than they have been due to there being more homes for sale.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in Eastern Washington in Q3 2023. Spokane and Franklin Counties had the lowest DOM at 23, while Lincoln County had the highest at 57. Walla Walla is in the middle of the chart at 41 days.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The market appears to be in a period of transition. Although sales were still happening, the pace of growth during the third quarter was modest. Moreover, listing inventory has risen significantly, which favors home buyers who are faced with decades-high mortgage rates.

Home sale prices were higher and asking prices were up significantly, which is a little counterintuitive given where mortgage rates are sitting. Sellers appear to still be confident.

The market is clearly in a state of flux and will likely continue to be in the coming
months. Buyers are hoping that mortgage rates have peaked, and may even come down by the new year, which is leading to a lot of fence-sitters.

A speedometer graph indicating the market in Eastern Washington for Q3 2023. The meter is solidly in the “balanced market” portion pointing to the right half of the section toward “Seller’s market.”

As such, the needle moves back
a little from sellers, but it remains in the
balanced quadrant, as neither side has an
overriding advantage.

Market News • October 30, 2023

Q3 2023 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

The following analysis of select counties of the Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

The pace of job gains in Colorado picked up in the third quarter. The state added 42,700 new jobs over the past year, representing a growth rate of 1.5%. That said, growth has certainly slowed from what we saw over the past two years. The Denver and Colorado Springs metro areas saw jobs rise by only .1%; the Boulder metro area saw jobs rise .2%; Greeley rose .6%; and the Fort Collins metro area grew 1.7%.

The state unemployment rate in August was 3.1%, up from 2.6% in the third quarter of 2022. By metro area, jobless rates ranged from a low of 3.2% in Boulder to a high of 3.8% in the Colorado Springs metropolitan area.

Colorado Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 8,597 homes sold, representing a drop of 20.9% from the same period in 2022. Sales were down 11.2% from the second quarter of this year.

❱ Year over year, sales fell across all the markets covered by this report except for Clear Creek County. Compared to the second quarter of this year, sales fell in every county except Clear Creek and Gilpin.

❱ The year-over-year drop in sales is not a surprise given that mortgage rates are significantly higher today and inventory is lower. What is of some concern is that inventory was up more than 36% from the second quarter, yet sales still fell. It appears that higher mortgage rates are now having an impact on the market.

❱ Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, fell 14.3% from the second quarter, suggesting that sales may be lackluster in the final quarter of the year.

A graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in Colorado from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. El Paso County had the least drastic change at -9.7%, while Gilpin had the largest change at -41.3%. Clear Creek is the only county with an increase, sitting at the top of the bar graph with 20.5 percent.

Colorado Home Prices

❱ The average home sale price rose 1.7% from the same period in 2022 to $665,725. Prices were 1.1% lower than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Compared to the second quarter, prices rose in Adams, Larimer, Gilpin, and El Paso counties but fell in the balance of the market areas.

❱ Year over year, prices rose in eight counties and fell in four. Clear Creek County saw a significant drop but since very few home sales happen there, it’s not uncommon for prices to experience significant swings.

❱ List prices are a leading indicator that I follow closely, and given that they were lower in all markets except Weld County compared to the second quarter of this year, it appears that sellers have started reacting to higher mortgage rates. This will likely lead home prices to fall a little further as we move toward the end of the year.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Colorado. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Larimer, Arapahoe, and Park had percentage changes above 3% and are represented in the corresponding navy color. Weld, Boulder, Gilpin, Adams, Jefferson, and El Paso were in the -.5% to 2.9% range. Denver and Douglas were in the -4% to -.06%. Clear Creek was in the -11% to -7.9% range and is represented in the light grey color on the map.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by county in Colorado from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Boulder had the lowest change at -0.3% and Clear Creek had the biggest decrease at 10.7% while Larimer and Arapahoe had the greatest increases at 5.7% and 5.5% respectively.

Mortgage Rates

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

Colorado Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose four days compared to the same period in 2022.

❱ The length of time it took to sell a home compared to the second quarter of this year fell in Boulder, Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park counties, but rose across the rest of the market areas.

❱ It took an average of 25 days to sell a home in the region, which is five fewer days than in the second quarter of 2023.

❱ Despite having more choice in the market, buyers picked up the pace a little in the quarter. It remains to be seen whether this will continue given stubbornly high financing costs.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in Colorado in Q3 2023. Gilpin County had the lowest DOM at 18, while Park County had the highest at 44. Denver and Douglas are in the middle of the chart at 24 and 25 days respectively.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Job growth is still significantly slower than it has been over the past two years. A slowing economy and decades-high mortgage rates are a recipe for a sluggish housing market, but Colorado appears to be rather resilient.

That said, with rising inventories, slowing sales, and lower list prices, it can hardly be described as a traditional seller’s market. In last quarter’s market update it was said that sellers appeared to have the edge over buyers, but it’s now clear that the market is starting to respond to higher mortgage rates.

A speedometer graph indicating the market in Colorado for Q3 2023. The meter is solidly in the “balanced market” portion pointing to the right half of the section toward “Seller’s market.”

Although the market conditions described above favor home buyers, they’re not totally in the driver’s seat. As such, the needle moved into the balanced quadrant. As we move through the winter and into the spring of 2024, we hope that we will have more clarity on the direction of the housing market.

Market News • October 30, 2023

Q3 2023 Southern California Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

Q3 2023 Southern California Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of select counties of the Southern California real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

The Southern California market areas contained in this report have been experiencing a fairly significant slowdown in job growth. That said, the region has added 164,700 jobs since the third quarter of 2022, representing a growth rate of 1.7%. The end of the writers’ strike will add a little boost to the Los Angeles area, which has still added over 89,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Orange County employment has grown by 34,100 jobs; San Diego County is higher by 31,400; and employment was up 9,700 jobs in Riverside.

The region’s unemployment rate in August was 5.2%, which was up from 4.2% in the third quarter of 2022. The lowest jobless rate was in San Diego County, where it was 4.3%. The highest rate was in Los Angeles County, where 5.8% of the workforce was without a job.

Southern California Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 32,398 homes sold, which was 16% lower than in the third quarter of 2022 and down 8.6% compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ Pending home sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were 8.2% lower than in the second quarter, suggesting that closing numbers may be down in the final quarter of 2023.

❱ Compared to the third quarter of 2022, sales fell the most in San Bernardino County, though there was a significant decline in all markets. The quarter-over-quarter decline was disconcerting given that the number of homes for sale rose more than 14%. Rising mortgage rates are clearly taking their toll on the market.

❱ It’s discouraging that there were fewer sales despite rising inventory levels. Mortgage rates are definitely hobbling the market and until they start to drop, I think things will continue to be lackluster. List prices have started to pull back in response, as sellers realize that the market is not what it once was.

A graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in Southern California from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Orange County had the least drastic change at -12.1%, while San Bernardino had the largest change at -18.9%. San Diego and Riverside County are in the middle at -17.1 percent.

Southern California Home Prices

❱ Home sale prices were up 5.7% from the third quarter of 2022 and were 3.8% higher than in the second quarter of 2023.

❱ Affordability continues to be a major constraint in the region, which is being magnified by persistently high mortgage rates. Prices are holding, but growth has slowed significantly.

❱ Year over year, prices rose in all the markets contained in this report, with significant increases in San Diego and Orange counties. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, Riverside County saw prices fall by 5.8%, but they rose in the balance of the market areas.

❱ I expect price growth in Southern California to hold at or near the current pace. However, it’s very possible that home sale prices could drop a little if list prices fall further.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Southern California. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. San Diego had percentage change above 5% and is represented in the corresponding navy color. Los Angeles and San Bernardino were in the 2-2.9% range. Riverside was in the -1-1.9% range and is represented in the light grey color on the map.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by county in Southern California from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Riverside County is represented by the at the bottom at 1.2% increase. San Diego is at the top with a 11.1% increase.

Mortgage Rates

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

Southern California Days on Market

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, the average time it took to sell a home in the region was 27 days. This was up two days compared to the same period of 2022.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of 2023, market time fell six days and was lower across all counties covered by this report.

❱ Homes in San Diego County continue to sell at a faster rate than other markets in the region, but it took two fewer days to sell a home than it did in the third quarter of 2022. Orange County saw days on market fall by one day compared to the third quarter of 2022, but market time rose everywhere else.

❱ Homebuyers saw rising inventories, and those who chose to make offers did so relatively quickly, even though the total number of sales fell. If the number of homes for sale continues to rise, it may also cause market time to rise as buyers become more selective.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in Southern California in Q3 2023. San Diego County had the lowest DOM at 19, while Riverside County had the highest at 35. Los Angeles is in the middle at 26 days.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

With inventory levels rising, and sales and asking prices falling, it would be easy to suggest that home buyers have the upper hand. However, home prices are still rising, albeit slowly, which tends to favor sellers.

The quandary really comes down to the fact that while inventory levels have risen, they remain remarkably low compared to historic averages. It’s also likely that the buyers who are still in the market are looking to move more from necessity than desire, which makes sense given today’s high mortgage rates.

A speedometer graph indicating a light seller's market in Southern California for Q3 2023. The meter is solidly in the “balanced market” portion of the chart leaning closer to “seller’s market” than the center of “balanced market.”

That has put us in a very unusual situation. Although sellers are being a little more competitive, as evidenced by the drop in list prices, they have not totally capitulated. Taking all these factors into consideration, the needle moves back to the middle of the speedometer. We simply don’t see either side as having the upper hand at the present time.

Market News • October 27, 2023

Q3 2023 Central and Southern Oregon Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

Q3 2023 Central & Southern Oregon Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of select counties of the Central and Southern Oregon real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

The Central and Southern Oregon counties covered by this report added 1,180 new jobs over the past 12 months, which represents an annual growth rate of .5%. Deschutes, Jefferson, and Klamath counties had solid job gains, but Jackson, Crook, and Josephine counties saw employment levels fall.

The unemployment rate across the region was 4.2%, down from 5% in the third quarter of 2022. By county, the lowest jobless rate was in Bend, where 3.7% of the labor force was jobless. The highest rate was in Crook County, where 5.4% of the labor force is still without a job.

Central and Southern Oregon Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 2,137 homes sold, representing a drop of 15.8% compared to the same period in 2022. However, sales were 7.2% higher than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of 2023, sales rose in all counties other than Crook and Jefferson, where they fell 1.2% and 10.2%, respectively.

❱ Sales fell across the board in all counties compared to the third quarter of 2022, with significant declines in all markets except Crook and Josephine counties.

❱ A possible explanation for the growth in sales between the second and third quarters could be that buyers saw mortgage rates starting to rise, which spurred sales. Given that we do not expect rates to fall in the fourth quarter, it will be interesting to see if sales continue to grow.

A graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in Central and Southern Oregon from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Josephine County had the least drastic change at -0.7%, while Jefferson County had the largest change at -27.9%. Klamath County is in the middle at -16.6 percent.

Central and Southern Oregon Home Prices

❱ The average home sale price in the region fell .4% year over year to $599,486. Prices were 1.8% higher than in the second quarter of 2023.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of this year, average prices rose in Deschutes, Jackson, Jefferson, and Josephine counties but fell in Crook and Klamath counties.

❱ Prices in every county other than Jefferson fell year over year. Crook County saw the greatest drop.

❱ The median listing price of a home rose 3.6% compared to the second quarter of this year. All markets except Jackson County raised asking prices.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Central and Southern Oregon. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Jefferson had percentage change above 5% and is represented in the corresponding navy color. Deschutes, Jackson, and Josephine were in the -6% to -0.6% range. Klamath was in the -11.5% to -6.1% range. Crook County was in the -17% to -11.6% range and is represented in the light grey color on the map.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by county in Central and Southern Oregon from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Jackson County is represented by the bar second from the top with a -0.6% change. Jefferson is on the top of the bar graph showing an 10.5% increase and Crook is at the bottom of the graph with a 17% decrease in sale price.

Mortgage Rates

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

Central and Southern Oregon Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the region rose 21 days compared to the third quarter of 2022. Market time in the third quarter matched what we saw in the second quarter of this year.

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the third quarter of 2023 was 53 days.

❱ All counties saw market time rise compared to the same period in 2022. Although the average days on market was static between the second and third quarters, this was due to a significant increase in market time in Jefferson County, which offset lower days on market across the balance of the region.

❱ The market appears to still be seeing demand from buyers, but this may not continue if mortgage rates stay at current levels.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in Central and Southern Oregon in Q3 2023. Deschutes County had the lowest DOM at 33, while Jefferson County had the highest at 67. Klamath and Josephine Counties were in the middle at 52 and 58 days respectively.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Higher sales as well as higher list and sale prices suggest that the market still favors
sellers. That said, it’s unclear whether the market can continue to allow prices to rise
much more given that mortgage rates are unlikely to fall meaningfully in the near future.

A speedometer graph indicating a light seller's market in Central and Southern Oregon for Q3 2023. The meter sits on the “seller’s market” side of the border next to “balanced market.”

As such, the needle stays in the same position as in the second quarter: favoring sellers, but only marginally.

Market News • October 27, 2023

Q3 2023 Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

Q3 2023 Oregon & Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of select counties of the Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

Employment growth in the Oregon counties covered by this report continues to slow. With 13,370 jobs added over the last 12 months, the growth rate was only .9%. Non-agricultural employment in Northwest Oregon is still down 11,690 jobs compared to its pre-COVID 2020 peak. That said, the jobless rate pulled back to 3.3% from 4.1% in the third quarter of 2022.

In the Southwest Washington market areas, the pace of job gains picked up a little. The areas covered by this report added 7,997 jobs over the past year, which represented an annual growth rate of 3.4%. Unemployment was 4.2%, which is up from the 5.2% level we saw in August 2022.

Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 10,279 homes sold. This was down 21% from the same period in 2022 and was 1.3% lower than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of this year, sales fell in eight counties but rose in ten. Klickitat and Hood River counties had significant growth; however, sales fell more than 10% in Lincoln, Skamania, and Wasco counties.

❱ Sales fell in every county compared to the third quarter of 2022, with significant declines in every county other than Klickitat.

❱ It appears as if higher mortgage rates are now starting to impact the market. Additionally, inventory levels did not rise in any of the counties in this report, which could also be a factor in slowing sales activity.

A graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Klickitat WA had the least drastic change at -7.4%, while Skamania WA had the largest change at -36%. Areas like Clark and Lincoln were in the middle at just over -20%.

Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington Home Prices

❱ The average price that a home sold for in the region fell .1% year over year and was essentially flat compared to the second quarter of 2023.

❱ On average, the median listing price of a home rose a modest 1.9% compared to the second quarter of this year, suggesting that home sellers are starting to be realistic about the impact higher mortgage rates are having on buyers.

❱ Average sale prices rose in 10 counties compared to the third quarter of 2022, while eight saw prices fall. Wasco and Clatsop counties experienced fairly significant declines in prices, but these are relatively small markets where significant swings can occur. The same can be said when looking at markets where prices rose, with prices in Klickitat County up more than 10%.

❱ Price growth appears to have stalled out, which isn’t surprising given that mortgage rates were above 7% for almost the entire quarter. I expect home prices to remain fairly static for the fourth quarter as buyers and sellers wait to see where mortgage rates are headed.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Klickitat had percentage change above 6% and is represented in the corresponding navy color. Cowlitz, Skamania, Clackamas, Lane, Yamhill, Clark, Benton, Maroon, and Hood River Counties were in the 0-5.9% range. Polk, Washington, Linn, Multnomah, Lincoln, and Columbia were in the -6% to -0.1% range. Clatsop and Wasco Counties were in the -18 to -12.1% range and were represented in the light grey color on the map.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by county in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Hood River County is represented by the bar in the middle with the least change at 0.1% increase. Klickitat WA is on the top of the bar graph showing an 11% increase and Wasco is at the bottom of the graph with a 17.3% decrease in sale price.

Mortgage Rates

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the third quarter of 2023 was 49 days.

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the region rose eight days compared to the same period in 2022, but it took seven fewer days for a home to sell compared to the second quarter of 2023.

❱ Except for Benton and Skamania Counties, all counties in this report saw the length of time it took for a home to sell rise compared to the third quarter of 2022. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, market time fell in 13 counties. Days on market rose in Clackamas, Hood River, Marion, and Multnomah counties.

❱ The numbers seem to suggest that buyers are moving relatively swiftly when they do find a home that they want, even in the face of higher mortgage rates.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington in Q3 2023. Washington County had the lowest DOM at 22, while Polk County had the highest at 88. Skamania and Columbia Counties were in the middle at 33 and 37 days respectively.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Although modestly lower home sales could suggest that buyers are in a better position when it comes to negotiating for a home, list prices, sale prices, and shorter market time favor home sellers.

In the second quarter market update, it was suggested that the market was returning to one that favors sellers and moved the needle accordingly. This is still the case, but mortgage rates remain a significant obstacle. Therefore the needle stays in the same position as last quarter: very slightly favoring sellers, but not by much.

A speedometer graph indicating a light seller's market in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington for Q3 2023. The meter sits on the “balanced market” side of the border next to “seller’s market.”

Market News • October 26, 2023

Q3 2023 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

Q3 2023 Western Washington Real Estate Market Trends

The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

The pace of job growth continues to slow in Western Washington, as the region added only 21,907 new positions over the past 12 months. This represented a growth rate of 1.4%, which was the lowest pace of new jobs added since the pandemic ended.

The regional unemployment rate in August was 5.8%, which was marginally below the 6% rate we saw in the same quarter in 2022. A few smaller counties lost jobs over the past 12 months while King County’s employment levels rose a meager .4%, mainly due to job losses in the technology sector. I’ve said before that I’m not convinced that the U.S. is going to enter a recession; I still stand by that theory. Slowing job growth does not necessarily need to be a precursor to a recession, but I expect that we will see lackluster growth until next spring at the earliest.

Western Washington Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 14,970 homes sold. This was down 22% from the third quarter of 2022 and 1% lower than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Sales fell even as the average number of homes for sale increased 29.5% from the second quarter. This is clearly a sign that significantly higher mortgage rates are having an impact on the market.

❱ Sales fell in all counties except San Juan compared to the third quarter of 2022. They were up in 9 of the 14 counties covered in this report compared to the second quarter of 2023. San Juan, Mason, Grays Harbor, and Whatcom counties saw significant increases.

❱ Pending sales fell 6% compared to the second quarter of this year, suggesting that closings in the upcoming quarter may be lackluster unless mortgage rates fall, which I think is highly unlikely.

A graph showing the annual change in home sales by county in Western Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. San Juan had the least drastic change at 1.3%, while Kitsap had the largest change at -28.7%. Areas like Skagit and King were in the middle at -20.4% and -21% respectively.

Western Washington Home Prices

❱ Prices rose 2.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022 and were .6% higher than in the second quarter of this year. The average home sale price was $776,205.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of this year, sale prices were higher in all counties except Grays Harbor (-.5%), Kitsap (-1.5%), Clallam (-1.6%), Whatcom (-2.6%), and Skagit (-3%).

❱ Compared to the prior year, the pace of price growth slowed in the third quarter. This wasn’t too surprising given that the market was coming off record high
prices in the summer of 2022. But what was surprising was that prices rose over the previous quarter despite the fact that mortgage rates were above 7% for almost the entire quarter.

❱ I don’t expect prices to move far from current levels in the coming months, and they likely won’t rise again until mortgage rates start to fall. When prices do rise, I anticipate that the pace of growth will be far more modest than we have become accustomed to.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Western Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Island and San Juan had percentage changes above 7% and are represented in the corresponding navy color. Lewis and Kitsap Counties were in the 4-6.9% range, King, Jefferson, Thurston, Grays Harbor, and Snohomish were in the 1-3.9% range. Clallam and Pierce were in the -2-0.9% range and Mason, Whatcom, and Skagit were between -5% and -2.1% represented in the light grey color on the map.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices by county in Western Washington from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Pierce County saw the least change with 0.2% increase, and Island saw the biggest increase at 11.8%. Skagit County's home prices decreased 5%.

Mortgage Rates

With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.

Western Washington Days on Market

❱ It took an average of 32 days for homes to sell in the third quarter of 2023. This was 8 more days than in the same quarter of 2022, but 3 fewer days compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ Snohomish and King counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 19 days to find a buyer. Homes for sale in San Juan County took the longest time to find a buyer (57 days).

❱ All counties except Snohomish saw average days on market rise from the same period in 2022. Market time fell in 9 of the 14 counties compared to the prior quarter.

❱ The greatest fall in market time compared to the second quarter was in San Juan County, where market time fell 23 days.

A bar graph showing the days on market by county for homes in Western Washington in Q3 2023. Snohomish County had the lowest DOM at 19, while San Juan had the highest at 57. Skagit and Mason Counties were in the middle at around 30 days on market.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Although it was good that listing activity rose in the third quarter, it still remains well below levels that can be considered normal. This is unlikely to change anytime soon given that over 86% of Washington homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 5% and more than a quarter have rates at or below 3%. There is little incentive for them to sell if they don’t have to.

More germane is the disconnect between what homeowners believe their homes are worth and what buyers can afford with mortgage rates in the mid-7% range. Most sellers appear to be getting their asking prices, or very close to it, which reflects their confidence in the market. However, home buyers are being squeezed by multi-decade high borrowing costs.

It is all quite a quandary. However, taking all the factors into consideration, sellers still have the upper hand but not enough to move the needle from the position it was in last quarter

A speedometer graph indicating a light seller's market in Western Washington for Q3 2023. The meter sits in “seller’s market” but is close to the border of “balanced market.”

Given all the factors discussed above, the needle stays in the same position as the last quarter. The market still heavily favors sellers, but if rates rise much further, headwinds will likely increase.

Selling • October 25, 2023

Should I Tell Buyers My House is Haunted?

by Sandy Dodge

A street view of a run-down, haunted Victorian home in Saint John, New Brunswick.

This time of year is full of spooky moments. If you’re selling a home that has a history of paranormal activity, it could scare buyers away, or intrigue them. Haunted houses are a great attraction for thrill seekers, but buying one is a completely different matter. There’s one central question that haunts sellers who find themselves in this situation: Do I have to disclose that my house is haunted?

Selling a Haunted House

All sellers have to provide disclosure forms to illuminate issues with the property and the home listed for sale. Regulations vary by state, with some having certain language requiring that sellers disclose material facts that could affect the value and/or desirability of the home, while others do not have these requirements and caveat emptor or “buyer beware” applies instead. So, where does paranormal activity fit in? Again, it depends on where you live, but many states do not require such disclosures.

However, there have been legal cases where buyers have sued sellers for neglecting to mention the fact that the house they purchased was haunted. In the classic 1991 case Stambovsky v. Ackley, new homeowner Jeffrey Stambovsky won a lawsuit against the seller for not disclosing the home’s haunted history. In this case, stories about the previous owner’s experiences with paranormal activity in the home had been published in Reader’s Digest and the local newspaper, establishing the home as one with a spooky reputation. Though this case had a ripple effect in the housing industry, you should still check with your agent regarding the seller disclosure laws in your local market.

Although the laws around haunted disclosures are a bit murky, if a buyer asks about the history of the home, you as the seller have a duty to be honest. State laws even vary when it comes to disclosing recent deaths in the home, but if a buyer asks you specifically about whether such an event occurred, withholding that information from them could come back to haunt you, especially during negotiations.

How to Negotiate as a Seller

This time of year is full of ghostly tales, and there’s nothing more thrilling than that moment of fright we experience during a spooky story. But unfortunately, failing to disclose the fact that your house is haunted could send chills up your spine and cause the buyer to back out of the deal. As always, lean on your agent’s expertise for the best way to handle your unique situation. You never know, your haunted home may generate added interest to buyers who have an affinity for the paranormal!

For more tips on selling your home from list to closing, visit our comprehensive selling guide:

Featured Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: liquidfog