Oregon & SW WA Real Estate Market Trends

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Q3

2021

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Our Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate market data is updated quarterly to aid in your real estate forecasts. Historical Oregon real estate data and trends are included below the latest update. We break down our data by county, but we cover major cities in this region including Portland, Salem, Vancouver, and Bend.

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Q3 2021 Gardner Report

Oregon & SW WA
Real Estate Market Update

by Matthew Gardner

Below is the latest Oregon & SW WA housing market trends analysis. Additional links:

Historical OR & SW WA Data
Western WA Data
Central WA Data
Other Regional Data

 

The following analysis of the Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Following a significant slowdown in the pace of the job recovery in Oregon this summer, employment growth was picking up until rising COVID infections started to impact the country, which led to lower hiring. Of the more than 285,000 Oregon-based jobs that were shed at the onset of the pandemic, 204,700 have returned. Oregon is still down by almost 81,000 positions. The Southwest Washington area also saw a similar slowdown, but it is a far smaller market and, therefore, less impacted. In fact, this area has now recovered all but 600 of the more than 22,000 jobs that were lost. Oregon’s unemployment rate has fallen below 5% but remains 1.5% higher than before the pandemic hit. Notably, the jobless rate in Southwest Washington currently stands at 4.7%, only marginally above the pre-pandemic low of 4.3%.

oregon and southwest washington Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of the year, 21,119 sales occurred, a drop of 1.2% compared to a year ago but 7.4% higher than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Sales were higher in all but five counties compared the second quarter, but the drop in sales was very small in all of these markets.

❱ Sales activity was mixed across the region, with sales rising in 9 counties and dropping in 17. Benton, Linn, and Cowlitz counties saw significant increases. The greatest drop in sales was in Tillamook County, but small markets often exhibit significant swings, so this doesn’t concern me at the moment.

❱ Although demand has softened, low inventory levels have slowed the market modestly. I am hopeful the market will see an uptick in the number of listings, but I do not expect there will be enough to meet demand until next spring.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Oregon and Southwest Washington during the third quarter of 2021.

oregon and southwest washington Home Prices

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Oregon and Southwest Washington during the third quarter of 2021.

❱ Home price growth slowed very modestly from the pace of the second quarter but was still 18.2% higher than in the third quarter of 2020. Prices were also 2.5% higher than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Four counties—Crook, Hood River, Multnomah, and Tillamook—saw home prices drop, but the change was minimal and not a cause for concern.

❱ All counties contained in this report had higher home prices than a year ago, with very significant increases in Tillamook and Skamania counties. All but two counties saw double-digit appreciation.

❱ Home prices have been running very hot and must start to cool at some point. While I am forecasting mortgage rates will increase in 2022, it will not be enough to impact prices significantly. However, diminishing housing affordability in many markets will start to slow appreciation, which should come as a relief to home buyers.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for homes in various counties of Oregon and Southwest Washington during the third quarter of 2021.

Days on Market

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped 29 days compared to the third quarter of 2020. It took 5 fewer days to sell a home compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the third quarter of 2021 was 31 days.

❱ All counties saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop compared to a year ago, but half of the counties contained in this report saw market time increase compared to the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Homes again sold the fastest in Washington County, where it took an average of only 11 days for a home to sell. An additional 17 counties saw average market time drop to below a month.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties of Oregon and Southwest Washington during the third quarter of 2021.

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Oregon and Southwest Washington during the third quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The region’s housing market is sending mixed messages, with the pace of sales, price growth, and days on market starting to slow in some areas. Overall, the data is still very positive, but buyers continue to be hobbled by low levels of inventory and many simply aren’t prepared to pay what is being asked. This is evident given the change in list prices, which have softened in many markets.

While the housing market remains staunchly in favor of sellers, I think we are slowly reaching an apex and may start to move toward a more balanced market. However, I don’t see that happening until next year, and it’s not guaranteed. Home sellers still have the upper hand but, given all the factors described in this report, I am leaving the needle in the same spot as last quarter.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

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Major OR & SW WA cities covered in this report:

Portland

Salem

Eugene

Gresham

Hillsboro

Beaverton

Bend

Medford

Springfield

Corvallis

Aloha

Albany

Tigard

Lake Oswego

Keizer

Oregon City

Vancouver

OR & SW WA counties covered in this report:

Benton

Clackamas

Clark (WA)

Clatsop

Columbia

Coos

Cowlitz (WA)

Crook

Deschutes

Hood River

Jackson

Jefferson

Josephine

Klamath

Klickitat (WA)

Lane

Lincoln

Linn

Marion

Multnomah

Polk

Skamania

Tilamook

Wasco

Washington

Yamhill

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Gardner Report Archive

Oregon & SW WA
Historical Reports

2021
Q1 2021 Oregon & South West Washington Market Trends

Q1 2021
POST | (PDF)

Q2 2021 Oregon & South West Washington Market Trends

Q2 2021
POST | (PDF)

Q3 2021 Oregon & South West Washington Market Trends

Q3 2021
POST | (PDF)

2020
                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q1 2020
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q2 2020
POST | (PDF)

Market Trends Report Oregon & South West Washington Q3 2020. Click to view full report.

Q3 2020
POST | (PDF)

Q4 2020 Oregon & SW Washington Market Trends

Q4 2020
POST | (PDF)

2019
                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q1 2019
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q2 2019
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q3 2019
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q4 2019
POST | (PDF)

2018
                    Oregon & Southwest Washington Real Estate Update

Q1 2018
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q2 2018
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q3 2018
POST

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q4 2018
POST | (PDF)

2017
                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q1 2017
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q2 2017
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q3 2017
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q4 2017
POST | (PDF)

2016
                    Oregon and South West Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q1 2016
POST | (PDF)

                    Oregon and South West Washington Real Estate Market Update

Q2 2016
POST | (PDF)

Q3 2016
POST | (PDF)

Q4 2016
POST | (PDF)

These Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate reports, data, forecasts, and market trends are provided for informational use. If you find it useful, please properly attribute this resource with a link. Regions of Oregon and SW WA are also referred to as Portland Metro, Columbia River Gorge, Mt. Hood, Eastern Oregon, Central Oregon, and the Oregon Coast.