Market News • January 22, 2020

Idaho Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The job market in Idaho has picked up again, adding 19,700 new jobs over the past 12 months — an annual growth rate of an impressive 2.7%. That said, growth levels are still off the frenetic pace of 2018.

In November, the state unemployment rate was 2.9%, marginally higher than the 2.8% rate of a year ago. It cannot be disputed that the state remains at full employment. It is also interesting to note that the employment rate remained below 3% even as the labor force rose 2.8%, suggesting that the economy remains very strong and new entrants to the labor force are finding jobs with relative ease.

HOME SALES

5,691 homes were sold during the final quarter of 2019, representing a 3.7% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.
In Northern Idaho, Bonner County experienced a significant increase in sales — up 28.3% over the third quarter of 2018. However, Bonner is a small county so significant swings are not unusual. In Southern Idaho, sales also jumped in Payette County. The declines in total sales in three counties are, again, a function of the small number of transactions that took place in those markets.
Year-over-year sales growth was positive in two Northern Idaho counties and four Southern Idaho counties relative to the same period a year ago.
Pending sales dropped 32.5% over the third quarter of 2019, suggesting that closed sales in the first quarter of 2020 are likely to be lower than current figures.

HOME PRICES

The average home price in the region rose 11.7% year-over-year to $377,011 and sale prices were 2.5% higher than in the third quarter of 2019.
In Northern Idaho, Shoshone County led the market with the strongest annual price growth, but it is worth noting that the other two counties also saw double-digit price appreciation. In Southern Idaho, Boise County home prices leapt by more than 37%, and there were notable increases in Canyon, Gem, and Ada counties.
Year-over-year sales growth was positive in two Northern Idaho counties and four Southern Idaho counties relative to the same period a year ago.
Pending sales dropped 32.5% over the third quarter of 2019, suggesting that closed sales in the first quarter of 2020 are likely to be lower than current figures.

DAYS ON MARKET

It took an average of 117 days to sell a home in Northern Idaho and 60 days in the southern part of the state.
The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped 9 days compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, but it took 11 days longer to sell a home compared to the third quarter of 2019.
In Northern Idaho, days on market rose in Bonner and Kootenai counties, but dropped in Shoshone County. In Southern Idaho, market time dropped in Payette, Gem, Boise, and Blaine counties, but rose in Valley, Canyon, and Ada counties.
Homes sold the fastest in Payette, Canyon, and Ada counties.

CONCLUSIONS

The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Job growth is impressive and, as we all know, economic/job growth drives demand for housing, which continues to bode well for the Idaho market. Price growth remains impressive, but one must wonder how long this rapid trend in price growth can continue.

Even though I do expect to see slower price appreciation at some point in the future, it is unlikely to happen any time soon. As such, it remains staunchly a seller’s market so I have moved the needle a little more in their direction.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market News • January 21, 2020

Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Economics

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Employment in Washington State continues to soften; it is currently at an annual growth rate of 1.7%. I believe that is a temporary slowdown and we will see the pace of employment growth improve as we move further into the new year. It’s clear that businesses are continuing to feel the effects of the trade war with China and this is impacting hiring practices. This is, of course, in addition to the issues that Boeing currently faces regarding the 737 MAX.

In the fourth quarter of 2019 the state unemployment rate was 4.4%, marginally lower than the 4.5% level of a year ago. My most recent economic forecast suggests that statewide job growth in 2020 will rise 2.2%, with a total of 76,300 new jobs created.

HOME SALES

There were 18,322 home sales registered during the final quarter of 2019, representing an impressive increase of 4.7% from the same period in 2018.
Readers may remember that listing activity spiked in the summer of 2018 but could not be sustained, with the average number of listings continuing to fall. Year-over-year, the number of homes for sale in Western Washington dropped 31.7%.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, sales rose in nine counties and dropped in six. The greatest growth was in Whatcom County. San Juan County had significant declines, but this is a very small market which makes it prone to extreme swings.
Pending home sales — a barometer for future closings — dropped 31% between the third and fourth quarters of 2019, suggesting that we may well see a dip in the number of closed sales in the first quarter of 2020.

HOME PRICES

Home price growth in Western Washington spiked during fourth quarter, with average prices 8.3% higher than a year ago. The average sale price in Western Washington was $526,564, 0.7% higher than in the third quarter of 2019.
It’s worth noting that above-average price growth is happening in markets some distance from the primary job centers. I strongly feel this is due to affordability issues, which are forcing buyers farther out.
Compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in San Juan County, where home prices were up 41.7%. Six additional counties also saw double-digit price increases.
Home prices were higher in every county contained in this report. I expect this trend to continue in 2020, but we may see a softening in the pace of growth in some of the more expensive urban areas.

DAYS ON MARKET

The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped four days compared to the third quarter of 2019.
For the second quarter in a row, Thurston County was the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 29 days to sell. In nine counties, the length of time it took to sell a home dropped compared to the same period a year ago. Market time rose in four counties and two were unchanged.
Across the entire region, it took an average of 47 days to sell a home in the fourth quarter. This was up nine days over the third quarter of this year.
Market time remains below the long-term average across the region, a trend that will likely continue until we see more inventory come to market — possibly as we move through the spring.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The housing market ended the year on a high note, with transactions and prices picking up steam. I believe the uncertainty of 2018 (when we saw significant inventory enter the market) has passed and home buyers are back in the market. Unfortunately, buyers’ desire for more inventory is not being met and I do not see any significant increase in listing activity on the horizon. As such, I have moved the needle more in favor of home sellers.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Design • January 15, 2020

Refresh Your Bathroom into a Spa

by Meaghan McBoom

Image Source: Canva

With some creative thinking and a few do-it-yourself projects, you too can transform an everyday bathroom into a spa-like experience:

High-end shower head

There are a plethora of shower head options available today that can make even a simple shower space feel like a luxuriating experience.

Heated towel rack

Once out of the tub/shower, heated towels help you comfortably maintain your body temperature while the pampering continues.

Dimmable lights

Adjust the bathroom lights to match your moods and activities: brighter for primping, and dimmed to create a calming effect.

Less clutter

Not everything that’s meant for the bathroom needs to be stored in the bathroom. Look for things that can be moved elsewhere to make the space feel a bit bigger and more organized.

Calming scents

Essential oils, luxury soaps, and scented candles are an easy way to create an aromatic atmosphere of luxuriousness.

Market News • January 13, 2020

Matthew Gardner – Will There Be A Recession in 2020?

by Windermere Economics

Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, answers the most pressing question on everyone’s minds: Will there be a recession in 2020? Here’s what he expects to see.

More • December 18, 2019

Good tidings we bring, with turkeys and things!

by Marilou Ubungen

Agents from the Windermere Moses Lake office delivering 100 turkeys to the Moses Lake Food Bank.

Free turkey dinners and programs for women in need. Backpacks for children with food for the weekend. Scholarships for college so youth can realize their dreams. These are a few of our favorite things!

‘Tis the season of giving and Windermere offices across the Western U.S. are out donating to local non-profits and bringing good tidings and cheer to those who need a little extra help during the holidays. This is all made possible through the Windermere Foundation which is funded by donations from our agents, owners, and staff, as well as office fundraisers. Every Windermere office has its own Windermere Foundation fund that can be used to support non-profits in their communities. Below are just a few examples of how our offices are giving back to local non-profits during the holidays and throughout the year.

Windermere Moses Lake

For the past five years, the Windermere office in Moses Lake, Washington has donated 100 Thanksgiving turkeys to the Moses Lake Food Bank. Since 2015, the office has supported the food bank and other local assistance programs with donations totaling over $13,000. Representatives from the Windermere office were on hand to help deliver the turkeys to the food bank this year, which provided 1,278 families with Thanksgiving meals.

Windermere Homes and Estates

The Windermere Homes and Estate group of offices in Southern California (San Diego-Downtown, Scripps Ranch, South Carlsbad-Aviara, Temecula, and The Plaza at Aviara/South Carlsbad) pooled their Windermere Foundation funds together to make a $15,000 donation to support Feeding San Diego’s backpack program.

Holiday and summer breaks are especially hard on families who are reliant on school meal programs. This program aims to meet the nutritional needs of food insecure children over weekends and school holidays. Each child receives an easy-to-carry bag filled with nutritious staple items and fresh produce when leaving school on Thursday or Friday afternoons. Feeding San Diego works closely with 150 partner agencies to provide food and resources to individuals and families across San Diego. According to research by Feeding America, 26 percent of those served by partner agencies are under the age of 18 and 10 percent are under 5.

Photo courtesy of Feeding San Diego

Windermere Missoula

The Windermere office in Missoula, Montana donated $1,550 to Women’s Opportunity and Resource Development, Inc. (WORD). Its mission is to strengthen our community by creating opportunities that support and inspire women. Its programs offer support, education, and training to empower women and their families to move from a place of need to a place of independence, participation and choice.

Windermere Headquarters

The team at Windermere’s head office in Seattle donated $2,500 to the Marcus Trufant Family Foundation (MTFF) to support its annual holiday fundraising event. MTFF awards college scholarships to under-represented students in the greater Seattle area and partnering communities. The Foundation also provides programs of fundamental support needed to achieve life goals. Last year, MTFF awarded over 300 scholarships to youth to help them achieve their dreams of going to college.

Thanks to everyone who supports the Windermere Foundation we have been able to make a significant difference in the lives of many families in communities throughout the Western U.S. And this year, we have also proudly reached our goal of raising over $40 million in total donations since 1989.

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation or to make a donation, please visit WindermereFoundation.com.

Market News • December 16, 2019

Matthew Gardner’s 2020 Mortgage Rate Forecast

by Windermere Economics

Each year Windermere's Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, forecasts into the next. Here's what he expects for Mortgage Rates in 2020.

Market News • December 12, 2019

2020 Economic & Housing Market Forecast

by Windermere Economics

As we head into the New Year, it’s time to recap how the U.S. economy and housing markets performed in 2019 and offer my predictions for 2020.

U.S. Economy

In general, the economy performed pretty much as I expected this year: job growth slowed but the unemployment rate still hovers around levels not seen since the late 1960s.

Following the significant drop in corporate tax rates in January 2018, economic growth experience a big jump. However, we haven’t been able to continue those gains and I doubt we’ll return to 2%+ growth next year. Due to this slowing, I expect GDP to come in at only +1.4% next year. Non-residential fixed investment has started to wane as companies try to anticipate where economic policy will move next year. Furthermore, many businesses remain concerned over ongoing trade issues with China.

In 2020, I expect payrolls to continue growing, but the rate of growth will slow as the country adds fewer than 1.7 million new jobs. Due to this hiring slow down, the unemployment rate will start to rise, but still end the year at a very respectable 4.1%.

Many economists, including me, spent much of 2019 worried about the specter of a looming recession in 2020. Thankfully, such fears have started to wane (at least for now).

Despite some concerning signs, the likelihood that we will enter a recession in 2020 has dropped to about 26%. If we manage to stave off a recession in 2020, the possibility of a slowdown in 2021 is around 74%. That said, I fully expect that any drop in growth will be mild and will not negatively affect the U.S. housing market.

Existing Homes

As I write this article, full-year data has yet to be released. However, I feel confident that 2019 will end with a slight rise in home sales. For 2020, I expect sales to rise around 2.9% to just over 5.5 million units.

Home prices next year will continue to rise as mortgage rates remain very competitive. Look for prices to increase 3.8% in 2020 as demand continues to exceed supply and more first-time buyers enter the market.

In the year ahead, I expect the share of first-time buyers to grow, making them a very significant component of the housing market.

New Homes

The new-home market has been pretty disappointing for most of the year due to significant obstacles preventing builders from building. Land prices, labor and material costs, and regulatory fees make it very hard for builders to produce affordable housing. As a result, many are still focused on the luxury market where there are profits to be made, despite high demand from entry-level buyers.

Builders are aware of this and are doing their best to deliver more affordable product. As such, I believe single-family housing starts will rise next year to 942,000 units—an increase of 6.8% over 2019 and the highest number since 2007.

As the market starts to deliver more units, sales will rise just over 5%, but the increase in sales will be due to lower priced housing. Accordingly, new home prices are set to rise just 2.5% next year.

Mortgage Rates

Next year will still be very positive from a home-financing perspective, with the average rate for a 30-year conventional, fixed-rate mortgage averaging under 4%. That said, if there are significant improvements in trade issues with China, this forecast may change, but not significantly.

Conclusion

In this coming year, affordability issues will persist in many markets around the country, such as San Francisco; Los Angeles; San Jose; Seattle; and Bend, Oregon. The market will also continue to favor home sellers, but we will start to move more toward balance, resulting in another positive year overall for U.S. housing.

About Matthew Gardner:

Market News • December 4, 2019

Matthew Gardner’s 2020 Real Estate Forecast

by Windermere Economics

It’s that time of year when Windermere's Chief Economist Matthew Gardner dusts off his crystal ball and peers into the future to give us his predictions for the 2020 economy and housing market.

Design • December 2, 2019

Four Holiday Décor Trends to Inspire You This Season

by Meaghan McBoom

The holiday season is here and for many of us, that means it’s time to deck the halls. If you’re looking for some inspiration and a place to start, here are some ideas that are certain to get everyone in the spirit.

A Tree of a Different Color

Photo Credit: Left – Lushome, Center – HGTV, Right – Christmas365

For many, there’s nothing more quintessential during the holidays than a Christmas tree decked out in ornaments. But acquiring a tree can be challenging and expensive. Moreover, housing a tree consumes time and space. That’s why we love the idea of an alternative tree. There are plenty of options you can buy online or create yourself using things you probably already have around the house. And if you miss the smell of a real tree, try a scented candle or essential oils.

The Season of Lights

Photo Credit: Amara

There’s something perpetually charming about twinkling lights. Whether you’re wrapping them around your front porch or adorning your fireplace mantle, extra lights deliver a warm glow during the holiday season. Getting creative and adding light to otherwise unexpected places, including bookcases, around headboards, or even in glassware, is a great way to keep everything looking merry and bright.

Act Natural

Photo Credit: Better Homes & Gardens

Not all holiday climates are built alike. If you’re expecting a white Christmas, you’re probably used to pine trees and winter brush, but for those of you located in regions where the mercury doesn’t drop, sprinkling in natural elements can transform your home into a wintery oasis. Holly and pine needles add a traditional touch, or consider a wreath of olive branches with some sleigh bells interspersed.

Bring it All Home at Dinner

Photo Credit: Amara

When decorating for the holidays, don’t forget the table! A sprig of holly adds a festive touch to your place settings. And instead of the traditional centerpiece, try placing candles in glass vases or mason jars to give your tablescape that added touch of holiday pizzazz.

Design • November 20, 2019

Remodel for the Most Resale Value

by Meaghan McBoom

What’s the best remodeling project for your home? The answer, in part, depends on where you live. Every year, Remodeling Magazine evaluates which projects bring the most return at resale in different markets around the country in their “Cost vs. Value” report. For the purposes of this blog, we are focusing on the Pacific states (WA, OR, CA, AL) and the Mountain states (MT, ID, UT, CO, NV).

According to the Remodeling 2019 Cost vs. Value Report (www.costvsvalue.com¹), these are the six top projects in those two regions that currently have the best return on your investment when it comes time to sell.

Garage Door Replacement

The project with the most return from Washington State to Nevada? A new garage door.

In the Pacific States, replacing your garage door will cost an average $3,785, but will increase your resale value by $4,686, recouping 123.8 percent of what you paid for it. Homes in the Mountain States will also benefit from a garage door replacement, recouping 98.6 percent of their costs.

Due to its size, a garage door can have a big impact on a home’s curb appeal. But adding to your home’s aesthetic is only one advantage; the warranty that comes with the new garage door is also a selling point for potential buyers who can trust that they likely won’t have to deal with any maintenance issues in the near term.

Manufactured Stone Veneer

As long as the new stone veneer is consistent with your neighborhood’s overall look, this siding is the second-best project across the Pacific and Mountain states.

Stone veneer can replace your home’s existing siding, adding a fresh, modern look that conjures a cozy vibe all the way from the street, before buyers ever step foot inside. Along the West Coast, it can recoup 110.4 percent of the cost when you sell, and Mountain states will recoup 96.5 percent of the cost.

Wood Deck Addition

While building a deck might seem like a big undertaking, it’s actually a pretty cost-effective way to positively impact your home’s resale value. Pacific states can expect to pay around $15,000 and Mountain states just above $13,000, but they’ll see 87.8 percent and 74.3 percent recouped respectively when they sell.

Adding a deck extends the living space of your home and provides even more area for entertaining, relaxing, and enjoying the outdoors. Whether you choose a natural wood deck or a low-maintenance composite deck, you can pick from a variety of styles based on the lay of your land and the areas of your backyard you wish to highlight.

Minor Kitchen Remodel

No need to move walls or appliances around, a minor kitchen remodel will do the trick to recoup 87.1 percent of the cost in the Pacific states, and 80.3 percent in the Mountain states.

An outdated kitchen can go from drab to fab and become a focal point with a fresh palette. Replace the cabinet doors with new shaker-style wood panels and metal or metal-looking hardware. Switch out the old counter tops with laminate that matches the new look. Think about adding a resilient flooring option, then finish the project with a fresh coat of paint to the walls, trim, and ceiling.

Grand Entrance

Looking to improve your curb appeal and create an entrance that guests and homebuyers won’t soon forget? Add a fiberglass grand entrance. This project involves replacing a standard-sized front door with a larger opening with dual sidelights (glass panels). Typically costing around $8,000, Pacific states will see 85.1 percent of that recouped in the sale, and Mountain states will see 71 percent.

Siding Replacement

Depending on the size of your home, replacing the siding can be an expensive undertaking. However, it’s a project that comes with high returns. For Mountain states, sellers can expect 75.4 percent of the costs recouped, and Pacific sellers will see 84.3 percent.

Not only is siding one of the first things a buyer sees, but it also serves as an indicator of the overall health of the home. Broken or damaged siding could mean that there are other problems with the home, such as pests and rot. Replacing old siding is a cost-effective way to boost your home’s curb appeal and ensure buyers are going to walk through your front door.

At the end of the day, the right remodeling projects for you are the ones that make sense for your household and are within your budget. Talk to an agent about which remodeling projects could add the most value to your home. To connect with an experienced Windermere agent, click the button below.

“© 2019 Hanley Wood, LLC. Complete data from the Remodeling 2019 Cost vs. Value Report can be downloaded free at www.costvsvalue.com.”