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Local Look Western Washington Housing Update 3/11/26
Hi. I’m Jeff Tucker, principal economist at Windermere Real Estate, and this is a Local Look at the February 2026 data from the Northwest MLS.
We are now on the cusp of the busy spring selling season, and the data so far in 2026 point to a market that’s relatively balanced for buyers … for this time of year.
Across the Northwest MLS, there were almost exactly the same number of closed home sales as in February 2025, or the prior February for that matter. And pending home sales ticked up by 3%.
On the supply side, the flow of new listings was up a whopping 18% from last February’s pace. Finally, the month ended with 28% more active listings than last February. That’s a major uptick in inventory, and even the pace of that growth has now accelerated.
More negotiating leverage for buyers translated into lower home prices in February: down 2 and a half percent from last year, or basically back to 2024’s level.
Now for a closer look at the four counties encompassing the greater Seattle area.
Closed sales dropped by 3% from last February around the region, which looked like a modest dip compared to January’s 9% decline. Once again Snohomish County had the biggest decline, followed by King County, while Kitsap and Pierce Counties’ sales volumes have held steady.
Median sale prices were mostly firm around the region, combing 2% in King, 4% in Kitsap, and 5% in Pierce County. Snohomish County, though, saw prices step back down to 2024 levels.
Looking ahead, pending sales climbed 1% across the region in February, buoyed by a big bounce back in Kitsap, and modest growth in Pierce and Snohomish Counties. Only King County saw a modest dip in pending home sales.
On the supply side, the 4-county greater Seattle area ended the month with 35% more active listings than last February, led by 47% growth in Snohomish County and 42% growth in King County. I think in those two core, higher-cost counties, buyers will see an unusually favorable spring buying season, thanks in part to a boost in listings from homeowners who de-listed last year and are now returning to the market.
Looking ahead to March and April, I think the big question is whether buyers feel emboldened by higher inventory and lower mortgage rates, or spooked by geopolitical turmoil and rising gas prices. As it stands, they will have more homes on the market to choose from than any spring in recent memory.
Numbers to Know 2/18/26: The Latest Economic & Housing Update
This is the latest in a series of videos with Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker, where he delivers the key economic numbers to follow to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
I’ll start with some bad news and some good news from the latest jobs report. The first number to know this week is the bad news: 181,000. That’s the total number of jobs added in the entire year of 2025, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which follow a standard annual revision updating their models to match more accurate but less timely data sources. These revisions drove home the conclusion that job growth basically stalled out in 2025, and was much worse than even the weak monthly payrolls reports were showing us. That total job growth compares to previous annual totals in the millions, although the trend of slowing growth has been clear for quite some time.
The second number to know this week was the good news in the latest jobs report: 4.3%. That’s the unemployment rate in January, which stepped down again, from a high in November of 4.5%, bringing it back down to summer 2025 levels. That’s one indication that the labor market MAY have begun to turn the corner this winter, with some modest improvement to start the year after several straight months of weakening. These are just preliminary numbers, but coupled with what we know will be strong economic tailwinds from the huge tax cuts in last year’s budget bill, the stage seems to be set for stronger economic growth this spring.
The third number to know right now: 1.84 percentage points. That was the average spread, or how much higher 30-year mortgage rates were than the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield in the first week of February. That means we are knocking at the door of a normal spread after almost four years of a really abnormally wide spread. This was a major culprit in the pain that homebuyers felt trying to get a mortgage. Last month I talked about the surprise announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be buying mortgage-backed securities, and I think the proof is in the pudding that the news of that purchasing plan helped bring this spread down by that last 30 basis points just in the last month.
So where are mortgage rates now? Well, they’ve been hovering around 6 and an eighth all year, which is an improvement from this time in 2025 of at least half a point, maybe ¾ or a whole point, for most borrowers. I think the takeaway here is that we’ve now seen most of the improvement to mortgage rates that we were expecting from that spread closing, which is a little bittersweet – it’s great news that it happened, but now that potential avenue for rate improvement has run its course, which makes me less optimistic about prospects for further rate declines in the near term. It’ll depend instead on the overall interest rate and inflation environment cooling down, and those prospects look a lot dicier: the big increase in borrowing that the budget bill is kicking off this year will tend to push up Treasury yields, and the boost to economic growth should also keep inflation elevated. So my takeaway for anyone considering a mortgage is that rates have come down a lot, and there’s no point waiting on the sidelines in hopes of further declines, given what we can expect in the year ahead.
Turning to the housing market, we saw 913,000 active listings at the end of January, which is the most since January 2020, on the eve of the pandemic. In other words, nationally, inventory is finally nearly back to normal.
That 10% growth in inventory continues a consistent trend since last May, of active listings growing but at an ever slower pace. I think there’s good news for everyone in that fact: buyers will have more options to choose from this spring, and sellers don’t need to worry about competing against a glut of inventory, but they should be prepared to put their best foot forward when they list their home this spring, because it’s always worth it to stand out from the competition.
Fourth Quarter Regional Real Estate Report
This is a recurring series of blog posts taking a closer look at the U.S. economy and several major regional markets in Windermere’s nine-state footprint. Updates will be released on a quarterly basis.
Economic Overview
Last year did not deliver the hoped-for breakout from the low-sales housing market that has persisted since interest rates skyrocketed in 2022. Just over four million existing homes sold in 2025 – nearly identical to the totals in 2023 and 2024.
Mortgage rates edged lower in the fourth quarter, falling from an average of 6.35% in September to 6.19% in December. That downward trend continued into early 2026, particularly following the announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would purchase additional mortgage-backed securities.
Source: Freddie Mac via FRED.
The labor market continued to soften in the fourth quarter, with negative total payroll changes after anemic job growth in the third quarter.
Source: BLS via FRED.
The following is a detailed overview of housing trends across six regional markets within Windermere’s footprint during the fourth quarter of 2025. They include the Greater Seattle Area, Greater Portland Area, Greater Sacramento Area, Northwest Washington State, the Spokane, WA and Coeur d’Alene, ID markets, and Salt Lake County, UT.
Greater Seattle Area (King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap Counties)
The fourth quarter cemented the defining themes of 2025 for the Seattle-area housing market: higher inventory and more negotiating power for buyers. Active listings totaled nearly 5,200 at year-end, which was 31% higher than at the end of 2024, yet well below the more than 9,000 listings on the market as recently as September, reflecting the typical seasonal pullback in the fall.
The fourth quarter is typically the low-water mark for new listings, and 2025 was no exception: just under 1,700 new listings hit the market in December, barely 2% more than a year earlier. That modest year-over-year increase marked a major cooldown from the faster pace of new-listings growth seen earlier in the year.
Listings continued to linger on the market longer in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year. In December, homes averaged 47 days on market, up from 39 days in December 2024. January will likely mark the seasonal high-water mark before time on market plunges with the onset of the spring selling season later in the first quarter.
Closed sales in the fourth quarter generally fell short of fourth-quarter2024 levels, which were boosted by a frenzy of buyer activity following the Federal Reserve’s initial interest rate cuts in September of that year. Closed sales year over year declined 8% in October and 13% in November, before rebounding to a 2% year-over-year increase in December.
Cooler demand this quarter showed up in prices, too. October and November saw median sale price drops of 1% and 3% from 2024, before ending the year at $725,000, about 1% higher than the end of 2024. High inventory tends to depress price growth, as sellers are forced to compete for limited buyers.
The fourth quarter brought 2025 to a subdued close in the Seattle-area housing market, with no surge of activity to rival the fourth quarter of 2024 and higher inventory continuing to weigh down prices. That said, the new year is kicking off with much lower interest rates than a year ago, which may be enough to jump-start buyer demand after a quiet winter.
Greater Portland Area (Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, and Clark Counties)
The Greater Portland Area notched another quiet quarter of normalization to round out 2025, with modestly rising inventory and slightly lower prices than 2024.
Active listings ended the year at 3,788, or 13% higher than the previous year. That continues a trend of decelerating inventory growth since May.
New listings in the fourth quarter of 2025 remained below fourth-quarter 2024 levels for the third straight month, capped by a 5% decline in December, traditionally the quietest month for new listings. The slower inflow of listings to the market has contributed to the more modest inventory growth seen above.
The average home sold after 66 days on the market—about six days longer than December 2024. Homes that linger for several months often end up selling below their original asking price, a trend that has increasingly worked in buyers’ favor in the fourth quarter.
Closed sales of single-family homes rose 7% year over year in December, following a significant dip in November. Overall, the 5,221 closed sales in the fourth quarter narrowly exceeded the 5,162 sales recorded in the final quarter of 2024, suggesting that more buyers were motivated to get off the fence this fall.
Median home sale prices in the Portland area edged down slightly, ending the year at $580,000 – about 1% below December 2024. Paired with the rebound in sales, this suggests buyers were able to negotiate for some deals at the end of 2025.
The fourth quarter continued to demonstrate the downstream effects of higher inventory in the Portland area: it helped attract buyers and support affordability, while also discouraging some sellers who are likely waiting to list.
Greater Sacramento Area (Sacramento, Yolo, El Dorado, and Placer Counties)
The Greater Sacramento Area is another market where the advantage has decisively shifted in favor of buyers. Inventory has climbed, prices have cooled, and sales activity has remained relatively flat.
At the end of December, there were about 2,700 active listings—an increase of 14% compared to the end of 2024. Overall, inventory growth in the fourth quarter was much more modest than in early 2025, when listings were up 50% or more compared with 2024.
New listings ran below December 2024 levels for four straight months, before ticking up 10% in December 2025—a modest boost to end the year.
Average days on market rose by about 11 days compared to December 2024, reaching 52 days. While this eases some of the pressure on home shoppers, seasonal trends are likely to bring the number down later in the first quarter.
Sales activity in the fourth quarter of 2025 was remarkably similar to the fourth quarter of 2024, with nearly 4,500 homes sold in 2025 compared with just over 4,500 the year before.
Median sale prices fell 3%, from around $595,000 in December 2024 to $577,000 in December 2025. The main causes of the softer pricing were higher inventory and longer time on market.
The fourth-quarter takeaway in the Greater Sacramento Area is that buyers came to appreciate and act on their greater negotiating power, winning some bargains while sales volume remained basically flat.
Northwest Washington (Skagit, Whatcom, San Juan, and Island Counties)
The market conditions in the four northernmost counties of Western Washington are experiencing a major shift in favor of buyers.
At the end of December, there were 1,121 active listings, up 21% from a year earlier. That marked a slowdown in inventory growth in the fourth quarter, down from increases of 30% or more in the middle of the year.
The flow of new listings fell sharply in the fourth quarter, even by seasonal standards. Some listings may have been affected by flooding during the atmospheric rivers that slammed Washington State; others may have been withheld by sellers clued into the cooler selling conditions.
Days on market continued to climb compared to a year earlier, with homes in December taking about five days longer to sell than they did at the same time a year earlier.
Closed home sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 generally trailed fourth-quarter 2024 levels, except for a modest uptick in December. In total, the 1,210 closed sales for the quarter fell about 4% short of the 1,251 homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Compared to the same time the previous year, median home prices were virtually flat in November and December, after a brief bump in October. This marks a continuation of the cooldown of price growth that had characterized 2024 and early 2025.
Fourth quarter confirmed that higher inventory levels finally gave buyers more negotiating leverage in Northwest Washington.
Spokane, WA and Coeur d’Alene, ID Area (Spokane and Kootenai Counties)
The greater Spokane-Coeur d’Alene region, spanning the Washington-Idaho border, is experiencing many of the same market trends seen in Western Washington, including higher inventory, softer buyer demand, and flattening home prices.
At the end of December, there were 1,979 active listings, up 16% from December 2024. That represented a modest slowdown in inventory growth from the year-over-year increases of more than 20% seen earlier in 2025.
New listings jumped 19% compared to December 2024, but month-to-month changes in new listings were quite volatile. During the quarter as a whole, there were 2,681 new listings, up from 2,549 in the fourth quarter of 2024, representing a 5% increase.
The pace of home sales, which is measured by days on market, only crept up modestly in the fourth quarter, ending the year at 66 days in December. However, that average obscures a wide divide across the state line, with homes averaging 47 days on market in Spokane County compared with 106 days in Kootenai County.
Closed sales in December were down 9% year-over-year, and the quarter also saw a modest decline. Sales slipped from 2,152 in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 2,117 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Because of challenges associated with combining data from multiple MLSs, we report average sale prices rather than medians for the Spokane-Coeur d’Alene area. Compared with December 2024, the average sale price in December rose about 2%, from $550,000 to $561,000. For the quarter as a whole, average prices also increased 2%, rising from $560,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $572,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
That increase was driven entirely by higher average sale prices in Kootenai County, where prices climbed 8%, while average prices in Spokane County fell 2%.
Altogether, the shift towards a buyer’s market in the greater Spokane-Coeur d’Alene area began to flatten prices without yielding an increase in sales. Many metrics diverged across the Washington-Idaho border, with evidence of resilient demand for homes at Coeur d’Alene’s higher price points, while demand lagged in Spokane County.
Salt Lake County, Utah
Market conditions in Salt Lake County swung sharply in buyers’ favor early in 2025, as rapid inventory growth led to modest price declines. More recently, however, the market has begun to look more balanced rather than distinctly a buyer’s market.
Active listings at the end of December stood at 1,423 homes, up 12% from a year ago—a major slowdown from the 43% inventory growth seen in July of last year.
Salt Lake County experienced strong year-over-year growth in new listings early in 2025, exceeding 20% in March and April, but slowing to just 7% growth in December. The waning seller enthusiasm is helping to rebalance the market.
The average number of days it took to sell a home in Salt Lake County ended the year at 61 days, just slightly longer than the 60-day average at the end of 2024.
Closed home sales in December 2025 rose 2% compared to December 2024, capping a fourth quarter that roughly matched the strong sales seen in the same period the year before.
In December, the median sale price in Salt Lake County rose 5% year over year—from $594,000 to $625,000. That marked the fifth straight month of price gains, reversing a trend of modest price declines in mid-summer.
All in all, Salt Lake County has shifted into a more balanced market, driven by modest price growth and a slowdown from the significant inventory buildup seen earlier in 2025.
Conclusion:
All of the markets covered in this report shifted in buyers’ favor in 2025, though some, like Salt Lake County, show that the pendulum can—and will—begin to swing back toward more balanced conditions.
Going forward, buyers should be aware that in most markets, there are more listings than in recent years, home prices have remained roughly flat for at least a year, and mortgage rates are near three-year lows. Together, these factors create a strong opportunity to buy. That said, buyers should also be mindful of the usual spring surge in competition, which will accelerate home sales and push prices higher, as it does every year. Savvy buyers can try to get ahead by shopping earlier, but they should also be prepared to write a competitive offer if their ideal home hits the market this spring.
For sellers, the peak selling season is fast approaching. But even in a more balanced market, homes do not sell themselves. The best outcomes still depend on presenting the home well, setting the right list price, and marketing effectively to the right buyers. With the right strategy, this spring presents a great opportunity to sell for the best possible price, especially as lower mortgage rates bring more buyers off the fence.
Sources: TrendGraphix analysis of NWMLS, RMLS, Spokane MLS, MetroList MLS, and Wasatch Front MLS data.
Numbers to Know 1/14/26: Mortgage Rates Are Moving, Here’s What to Know
This is the latest in a series of videos with Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker, where he delivers the key economic numbers to follow to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
2026 is already proving to be a busy news year for the housing market, starting with our first number to know:
$200 billion
That’s the total value of mortgage-backed securities that President Trump announced on January 8th he’s directed “his Representatives” to purchase, with a stated goal of reducing mortgage interest rates. A big new buyer of mortgages will tend to bid their prices up, which – for bonds – means pushing interest rates down.
For the last 3 years, mortgage rates have been unusually high relative to the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate, which has been gradually compressing back to a normal range, and this buying spree, evidently by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, should accelerate that process of shrinking the spread.
Markets have taken this announcement quite seriously. In just the first day of trading after Trump’s announcement, mortgage rates dropped 15 basis points, bringing us to our second number to know right now:
6.06%
That was Mortgage News Daily’s average 30-year mortgage rate on Friday, January 9th, and that marks the lowest mortgage rate they’ve reported in almost 3 years. Now – trading has been unusually volatile, and there are still a lot of unanswered questions about this new program, but there’s no doubt that in the short term, it has begun moving markets, and I think SOME highly qualified buyers and sellers who start to see mortgage rates in the 5% range will be more motivated to transact this spring.
Another number to know right now:
56,000
That’s the number of jobs lost on net over the fourth quarter of 2025, capping a year of slowing, and finally shrinking, payrolls in the U.S. economy. Now, other data shows economic activity held up fine in the fourth quarter, so this is not the beginning of a recession, but slowing job growth could help explain why home purchases disappointed in the fourth quarter, despite lower mortgage rates than in late 2024.
Speaking of housing, 2025 ended with the housing market still just shy of an important benchmark I’ve been watching: the moment when active inventory recovers to its pre-pandemic, 2019 levels. The year ended with just under a million active listings, vs just over a million 6 years ago on the eve of the Covid pandemic.
That is still up substantially from this time last year, but the trend of year-over-year listing growth clearly slowed over the course of 2025. That helps explain why 2025 went down as the year of cooling and normalization, but NOT anything like a fire sale or glut of unsold homes. Rather, it’s a market that made a lot of progress back toward normalcy, foretelling a healthy, balanced market in the year ahead.
Local Look Western Washington Housing Update 12/10/25
Hi. I’m Jeff Tucker, principal economist at Windermere Real Estate, and this is a Local Look at the November 2025 data from the Northwest MLS.
This November, the Washington housing market continued with its normal seasonal cooldown. And compared to last year, this month looked particularly cool, because 2024 featured an especially strong fourth quarter, which has NOT been repeated this year.
Across the Northwest MLS, closed home sales came in 10% below last November’s total. And pending sales, which give some signal about next month’s sales, actually inched up by 3% from the same time last year.
On the supply side, the flow of new listings was almost identical, or down just 1%, from last November’s pace. Finally, the month ended with 26% more active listings than last November, swinging negotiating power in buyers’ favor .
Those higher inventory levels are starting to put some downward pressure on prices, which dipped by $15,000, to a median of $650,000 for a residential home sale in November.
Now I’ll turn to a closer look at the four counties encompassing the greater Seattle area.
Closed sales dropped by 13% from last November, and none of the four counties was spared from double-digit declines, led by an 18% drop in Kitsap County.
Median sale prices showed roughly no gains around the region: 1% lower in King; 8% higher in Kitsap; 1% higher in Pierce, and 4% lower in Snohomish County. It seems clear now that inventory growth this year has dragged price appreciation down to about 0 for the time being.
Looking ahead, pending sales dipped only 2% across the region in November, thanks mainly to Snohomish’s 6% decline, while the other 3 counties were nearly flat.
On the supply side, the 4-county greater Seattle area had 30% more active listings than at the end of November 2024. I’ve highlighted before that this pace of growth is decelerating, but that deceleration itself may have stalled out: October had a nearly identical 31% growth rate of inventory.
This continues to bode well for buyers, who are now set up to approach the new year with more inventory and bargaining power than they’ve seen in years. For anyone who can squeeze house hunting in between their holiday gift shopping this month, they’ll be well-positioned to find a bargain, even now that Black Friday deals are gone from the stores!
Six Predictions for 2026
The following is a summary of Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker’s six predictions for the U.S. housing market and economy in 2026. He goes into more detail about his predictions in the video below.
1. Existing Home Sales Will Pick Up (Barely)
Home sales have hovered near generational lows for three years. While a sharp rebound is unlikely, conditions point to a modest uptick in 2026. Inventory levels are higher than they’ve been since 2019, and mortgage rates are lower than they’ve been since 2022. Together, those factors should lift existing home sales—but not by much.
2. Home Prices Will Be Roughly Flat
Home prices are likely to remain flat in 2026, largely due to higher inventory putting downward pressure on values. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed small declines last summer, though that trend faded by fall. Sellers have been highly responsive to market shifts, often de-listing when offers fall short or holding off on listing altogether. That restraint has kept prices from falling further despite growing supply
3. Inventory Will Climb to Pre-Pandemic Levels
The number of homes for sale will likely return to pre-pandemic levels in 2026, possibly as early as spring. Inventory rose sharply in 2025, and a “shadow supply” of homes—those whose owners are waiting for better conditions—remains in the wings. Many “discretionary sellers” will continue testing the market, holding out for the right price. That behavior should extend average time on market and boost total listings, giving buyers more options and negotiating power.
4. The Homeownership Rate Will Decline
At current prices and interest rates, homeownership remains out of reach for many middle-class Americans who would have bought in different conditions. Slower rent growth has also reduced urgency among would-be buyers, encouraging them to stay put. More renters are opting for single-family homes to enjoy the space and lifestyle of ownership without a mortgage, a shift that will help push the overall homeownership rate slightly lower.
5. Mortgage Rates Will Decline Slightly
Mortgage rates should remain below 6.25% for most of 2026 and could briefly dip under 6%. The Fed’s rate cuts and slower growth have brought 10-year Treasury yields near 4%, while the spread between Treasuries and mortgage rates has narrowed toward its normal range of 2% or less. That trend is expected to continue as refinance risk on mortgage-backed securities gradually fades, but much of the improvement is already reflected in current rates, so significant declines are unlikely.
6. We Will Avoid a Recession in 2026
The U.S. economy weathered several shocks in 2025 but avoided a downturn. Payroll gains have slowed, though more due to shrinking labor supply than weak demand, and unemployment claims have remained stable. After early trade policy turbulence, corporate earnings rebounded strongly, and tariff concerns have faded as court challenges and new trade deals rolled back some of the costliest restrictions.
The Latest Numbers to Know 11/19/25: Jobs, Housing, & Rates
This is the latest in a series of videos with Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker, where he delivers the key economic numbers to follow to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
The first number to know this week: 4%. That is how much higher unemployment claims are than this time last year. We don’t actually know the unemployment rate due to the government shutdown, which suspended collection of the household survey it’s based on, so instead economists have turned to state-level data sources. Labor economist Guy Berger shared this chart comparing continuing unemployment claims in 2025, in blue, to the last two years, showing a consistent, gradual 4% year-over-year increase. That’s not great news, but it still doesn’t indicate a sudden breakdown in economic growth. We’ll get a better picture of the economy as the Bureau of Labor Statistics resumes publishing data in the remainder of 2025.
Turning to the housing market: Realtor.com reported almost exactly 1.1 million active listings for sale at the end of October, for the third month in a row. One interesting trend this chart makes clear is that, since 2020, sellers have been more willing to keep listings up later into the fall than they tended to in 2019. That means we are closer now to 2019 inventory levels than at any other time since the pandemic began.
But for the fifth month in a row, the pace of growth of inventory has fallen yet again, now down to just 15% year-over-year. The big growth of active listings this spring and summer helped throw some cold water on price appreciation, pushing it down near to 0, but that inventory growth has slowed down enough that nationally, prices look most likely to flatline next year rather than plunge into negative territory.
That brings me to the next number to know: 1.5%. That’s the most recent year-over-year change in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and the slowest pace of home price appreciation since early 2023.
The other puzzle piece for home purchase affordability took a little step in the wrong direction last month: Mortgage rates rebounded from below 6.25% to more like 6 and 3/8, according to Mortgage News Daily. That’s still lower than they were last winter, and it just goes to show that mortgage rates rarely stick to the script and follow a predictable long-term trend.
That is all for this month; I look forward to more economic data in December, and thanks as always for watching!
Local Look Western Washington Housing Update 11/6/2025
Hi. I’m Jeff Tucker, principal economist at Windermere Real Estate, and this is a Local Look at the October 2025 data from the Northwest MLS.
This October, the Washington housing market began its usual seasonal shift into the cooler 4th quarter. Compared to last year, it looked particularly cool, because last October saw a sudden burst of buying activity in the wake of the Fed finally beginning to cut interest rates.
Across the Northwest MLS, closed home sales came in 4% below last October’s total. MLS. Pending sales, which give some signal about next month’s sales, were down 6% from the same time last year.
On the supply side, the flow of new listings remains roughly even with last year’s, or just 4% higher. Finally, the month ended with 29% more active listings than last October, continuing a slowdown in inventory growth but still leaving buyers with more options than they had last year or the year before.
Those higher inventory levels are starting to put some downward pressure on prices, which dipped 2%, to a median of $660,000 for a residential home sale in October.
Now I’ll turn to a closer look at the four counties encompassing the greater Seattle area.
Closed sales stepped down by 8% from last October, although that month last year had unusually high sales, especially in King County, where 2024’s sales were a whopping 33% higher than in 2023.
Median sale prices were split: 4% higher in King; 9% higher in Kitsap; but 2% lower in Pierce, and 5% lower in Snohomish County. That may represent a continued trend of demand retrenching toward the employment center of the region, around Seattle and Bellevue, as new return-to-office policies come into effect.
Looking ahead, pending sales fell 9% across the region, although again King County’s sales drop looks a bit like mean reversion after a standout 2024 number.
On the supply side, the 4-county greater Seattle area had 31% more active listings than at the end of October 2024. That continues the moderation of inventory growth we’ve seen since May, when this metric peaked at 45% year-over-year growth.
Looking ahead, we are entering one of the best times of the year for savvy buyers and their agents to find a bargain, and with much more inventory than even this time in the last two years. Whether they jump at the opportunity will be revealed in next month’s data!
Numbers to Know 10/22/25: The Latest on Jobs, Housing & Mortgage Rates
This is the latest in a series of videos with Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker, where he delivers the key economic numbers to follow to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
The government has shut down, and that means most government data publication has paused as well. The monthly CPI inflation report is delayed, and the monthly jobs report is suspended this month. So I’ll have to plan to revisit those when they resume, and in the meantime, I’ll start by checking in on the last publication out of the BLS before the shutdown: the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS for short.
3.2%
That was the hiring rate in August, meaning the share of the workforce that just got hired. It’s around the lowest hiring rate since 2010, when the economy was just beginning to dust itself off and climb out of the Great Recession. It’s one half of a simple summary of the economy that labor economists have been using for a couple years now: “Slow to hire, slow to fire.”
1.1%
That’s the rate of layoffs and discharges, or, broadly, the firing rate, to fit the rhyming scheme. It is not particularly high right now, even if it’s up slightly from the essentially record-low firing rate below 1% we saw briefly in 2022.
Putting it together, what “Slow to hire, slow to fire” means is that employers are essentially hunkering down, hanging on to their workers but not interested in growing those payrolls quickly. For people with jobs, this means the economy feels essentially OK – not great, but OK. But for those without a job, it’s proving unusually hard to break back into the workforce, which makes this a terrible time to be unemployed, and is gradually inflicting stress on the credit system and consumer spending. These are early signs of an economic slowdown, but not yet any indication of a recession.
Turning to the housing market: we’ve got a familiar refrain this month. More inventory means buyers have gained more negotiating leverage, although September likely represented the high-water mark for the year, with about 1.1 million active listings for the 3rd month in a row. That’s 17% more than the same time last year.
Importantly, inventory growth has passed an inflection point: for the fourth month in a row, the pace of growth of inventory has fallen yet again. Growth has now been roughly cut in half, from the 32% annual growth seen in May. That means inventory is not on a runaway growth track toward a glut that would push prices down. Rather, the market is re-equilibrating, as some sellers steer clear of a buyers’ market, or de-list after not getting a satisfactory offer. For buyers, it means conditions have moved in their favor but they shouldn’t count on that trend intensifying much further.
Another helpful factor for buyers, though, is that borrowing costs have continued to fall. The ten-year treasury yield, which is a major benchmark that mortgage rates tend to track, plus about 2 points, has now dipped below 4% for the first time this year. That reflects the combination of lower expected economic growth, and the resulting lower Fed Funds Rates expected over the next few years, as the Fed reacts to try to prevent a recession.
Hand in hand with those lower Treasury yields: Mortgage rates are moving back into their most favorable territory in 12 months, right around 6.25%. That represents significant savings compared to the rates of around 7% to start the year, and is partly driven by investor expectations of interest rate cuts to come. Because those expectations are already factored into the lower rates today, there’s no guarantee that mortgage rates will fall further even if and when the Fed continues cutting its overnight rate.
That is all for this month; I hope we’ll have more BLS data next month, and thanks as always for watching!
Housing Market Cools Alongside Economy in Third Quarter
This is the first in a recurring series of blog posts taking a closer look at the U.S. economy and several major regional markets in Windermere’s nine-state footprint. Updates will be released on a quarterly basis.
Economic Overview
After a slow spring, the U.S. housing market cooled further this summer, with price gains leveling off and sales holding steady. Existing home sales have hovered around an annualized pace of 4 million through August—nearly identical to last year’s unusually low 4.06 million. Mortgage rates dropped in the third quarter, falling from an average of 6.82% in May and June to 6.35% in September. The combination of rising inventory, softer pricing, and lower mortgage rates is making this fall a good time to buy a home.
Source: Freddie Mac via FRED.
A key driver behind falling mortgage rates is the cooling U.S. economy, following a sharp slowdown in job growth over the summer. After revisions, nonfarm payrolls show little to no growth from April through August, and the next jobs reports are on hold due to the government shutdown. While slower growth poses challenges, it often brings the silver lining of lower interest rates—and this cycle appears to be following that pattern.
The following is a detailed overview of recent housing trends across six regional markets within Windermere’s footprint during the third quarter of 2025. They include Greater Seattle Area, Greater Portland Area, Greater Sacramento Area, Northwest Washington State, Spokane County, and Salt Lake County.
Greater Seattle Area (King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap Counties)
High inventory in the greater Seattle area has swung the balance of negotiating power in buyers’ favor across the region this year. As of the end of September, buyers could choose from nearly 9,200 active listings—8% more than the same time in 2024. Still, inventory growth has slowed throughout Q3, from a peak of 48% year-over-year growth back in May. Slower inventory growth means we are not headed for a glut of listings, which is good news for sellers.
Inventory growth reflects several consecutive months of rising new listings outpacing closed sales, which gradually replenishes the supply of homes for sale. In September, the greater Seattle area had just over 5,300 new listings—about 12% more than last September. The entirety of Q3 reported 15,500 new listings, a 7% increase from Q3 2024.
Not only do buyers have more options compared to a year ago, but they are also seeing listings linger on the market longer : an average of 36 days on market in September, up from 28 days last year. Days on market were substantially longer than last year’s levels in each month of Q3.
Unfortunately, the growth of inventory and new listings has not done much to generate home sales. Closed sales in September totaled just under 3,500—virtually unchanged from the same period last year—following year-over-year declines of 3% in July and 4% in August.
Home prices remain flat alongside sales. September’s median price of $750,000 was up less than 1% from a year ago, after slight declines in July and August. High mortgage rates and affordability challenges are capping price growth, while rising inventory will likely put downward pressure on prices going forward. The wildcard is seller behavior—whether they’ll cut prices to sell or hold firm and wait.
The greater Seattle region is still grappling with elevated inventory, but it has clearly passed an inflection point: inventory growth decelerated over the third quarter, preventing conditions from swinging much further in buyers’ favor. As it stands, they’ll still have ample options and negotiating leverage this fall and winter.
Greater Portland Area (Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, and Clark Counties)
Broadly speaking, the greater Portland area housing market has entered the same holding pattern as many other Western U.S. cities: flat sales and prices; rising inventory and days on market; more negotiating power and options for buyers.
Active listings in the Portland area now stand close to 5,800, or about 17% more than this time last year. But the pace of inventory growth has decreased sharply since hitting 33% in April.
The slowdown in inventory growth can partly be attributed to a lower flow of new listings. The four–county Portland area saw year-over-year declines in new listings in both August and September, as some homeowners balked at listing in a slower market.
The average home sold after 49 days on the market—about a week longer than last September. This slower pace helps explain the higher inventory levels observed this year.
Closed sales of single-family homes climbed 8% year over year in September, following relatively flat activity in July and August. Sales volume momentum dropped sharply in May of this year, after impressive growth in late 2024.
Alongside rebounding sales activity in September, the median home price edged slightly below year-ago levels—slipping from just over $600,000 to about $595,000. This trend of flat or modestly negative price growth is giving household incomes some time to catch up with the higher mortgage costs we’ve seen this year.
All in all, the greater Portland area seems to be working through the early stages of a market cooldown. The buildup of inventory is beginning to put downward pressure on home prices, which appears to be discouraging some would-be sellers while also creating opportunities for buyers.
Greater Sacramento Area (Sacramento, Yolo, El Dorado, and Placer Counties)
The greater Sacramento area has followed a similar trajectory to Portland, with market conditions gradually shifting in favor of buyers. Inventory has climbed, prices have cooled, and sales activity has remained relatively flat. That said, the pace of inventory growth has recently slowed, and home sales perked up in September, hinting at a possible shift in momentum.
At the end of September, there were nearly 4,400 active listings—an increase of 18% compared to the same time last year. However, the pace of inventory growth has slowed considerably since earlier in the year when year-over-year gains peaked at 55% in February.
The flow of new listings has fallen below its year-ago pace for two months running now, with about 3% fewer new listings in September than last year.
Average days on market rose by about 11 days compared to last year, reaching 42 days in September—a noticeable shift in how long homes are taking to sell.
After a period of solid sales growth in Q4 of 2024, the Sacramento region returned to low or negative growth through much of 2025. However, September saw a 12% year-over-year increase in sales, which might reflect a rebound from a weak August or a boost in buyers attracted to lower mortgage rates in the third quarter.
Median sale prices dipped 1%, from about $598,000 last September to $590,000 this year, after staying steady at almost exactly year-ago levels in July and August.
Third-quarter trends in the greater Sacramento area point to a market where rising inventory is finally putting modest downward pressure on prices, even as falling mortgage rates begin to draw some buyers back. That combination could result in an upturn in sales alongside flat price growth.
Northwest Washington – Skagit, Whatcom, San Juan, and Island Counties
North of the greater Seattle area, the market conditions in the four northernmost counties of the Puget Sound region are experiencing a major shift in buyers’ favor.
At the end of September, there were 1,900 active listings, up 35% from a year ago. There’s no evidence of a slowdown in inventory growth here, like that of the Seattle area this quarter.
The flow of new listings has experienced healthy growth throughout most of 2025, resulting in a 21% increase compared to September of last year.
Time on market has climbed modestly but steadily all year, now up to 44 days on average in September, up from 41 days last year.
Closed sales were up 3% year over year in September, after a 3% dip in August and 10% growth in July.
Compared to the same time last year, median home prices rose 2% in July, dipped 6% in August, and then increased 1% in September to $625,000.
Looking ahead, prices will likely cool as buyers take advantage of increased inventory and gain more negotiating power.
Spokane County, Washington
Spokane County, which anchors Eastern Washington, is experiencing many of the same market trends as Western Washington: higher inventory, softer buyer demand, and flat home prices.
At the end of September, there were just over 2,000 active listings, up 32% from a year ago and significantly higher than two years ago, when there were fewer than 1,300 listings. The pace of inventory growth has only slightly slowed from the 33% year-over-year increases we saw in July and August.
New listings climbed 11% from last September, after increasing 26% in July and 5% in August.
Unlike some of the other markets in this report, Spokane has seen only modest increases in the number of days it takes to sell a home, averaging 33 days this September, up from 32 during the same time last year.
Closed sales in September were up 5% year over year, following a 3% increase in August and relatively flat sales in July.
Compared to last year, median sale prices in September dipped by about 1%, from $439,000 to $433,000. Prices were relatively flat year over year in July and August.
Altogether, the more balanced market conditions in Spokane this summer began to yield more sales activity alongside flat to slightly lower prices— a healthy combination for the market right now.
Salt Lake County, Utah
Earlier this year, Salt Lake County experienced an even sharper swing in buyers’ favor than the other markets in this report: higher inventory growth leading to modest price declines. Increasing sales growth in the third quarter shows that buyers have begun to take advantage of these conditions.
Active listings at the end of September stood at over 2,000 homes, up 20% from a year ago—a major slowdown from 43% inventory growth in July.
Salt Lake County saw substantial year-over-year growth in new listings earlier this spring, exceeding 20% in March and April, but only 3% growth in September. Selling enthusiasm seems to have faded this summer after the buildup of inventory in late spring.
The average number of days it took to sell a home in Salt Lake County was up substantially throughout the third quarter, ending at 51 days in September compared to 41 days the previous year.
Closed sales climbed 6% from a year ago in September, after a 7% increase in August. This is a promising early sign that buyers are responding to improved inventory and mortgage rate conditions.
In September, the median sale price rose 3% year over year—from $620,000 to $637,000. This uptick, along with August’s gain, broke a streak of modest price declines seen earlier in the summer.
All in all, Salt Lake County has begun to show a bit more balance after swinging in buyers’ favor earlier this year: inventory gains slowed down, and rebounding demand showed up in both rising sale counts and prices.
Conclusion:
All of the markets covered in this report have shifted into balanced or buyer-friendly territory, so it’s a good time to plan accordingly.
A consistent theme across the regions is the rise in inventory, paired with flat home sales and relatively flat prices compared to a year ago. This environment offers prospective buyers several advantages: more homes to choose from, greater leverage to negotiate, and less pressure to rush into a decision or compete in bidding wars.
For sellers, it’s important to be aware that the market has changed. Unlike the last several years, buyers now have more options, and home prices have leveled off. Success in today’s market depends on setting a realistic list price and presenting the home in its best possible light. With the right strategy, many homes are still selling quickly—and even above asking price—in every market highlighted in this report.
Sources: TrendGraphix analysis of NWMLS, RMLS, Spokane MLS, MetroList MLS, and Wasatch Front MLS data.
As Principal Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Jeff Tucker is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Jeff has over 10 years of experience as an economist at companies such as Zillow, Amazon, and AirDNA.
