Numbers to Know 6/18/26: The Market’s Latest Plot Twist

Hi, I’m Jeff Tucker, principal economist at Windermere Real Estate, and these are the numbers to know, right now.

The first number to know this month: $78.

That is the current price of a barrel of oil as of June 16, after falling about $30 in just the last month. Much of that decline follows from the signed memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, hopefully marking the beginning of the end of the war that has closed the straits of Hormuz.

The second number to know this month: 4.2%.

That is the current year-over-year pace of inflation as of May, and it’s the highest annual rate of inflation in over 3 years. It reflects the cost pressures from the Iran War disruptions still rippling out through the economy.

The Producer Price Index, which measures cost pressures further upstream in the supply chain, also continued accelerating in May, to 6.2%. Hopefully, this should begin to decelerate as lower oil prices bring down costs in the economy.

Bond yields are still elevated but they’ve begun to decline – the Ten-year Treasury yield has come back down about a quarter point from its peak in mid-May.

Similarly, 30-year mortgage rates are starting to come back down, but remain much higher than earlier this year: both Mortgage News Daily and Freddie Mac report average mortgage rates slightly above 6 and a half percent.

Speaking of the housing market, inventory growth slowed down again in May, which ended with just 2% more active listings than this time last year.

And most surprisingly, pending sales in May were up 5% year-over-year, according to realtor dot com, which marks a belated pickup in demand to close out the spring selling season on a higher note.

If mortgage rates continue to come back down, that strength in sales activity could continue into the summer.