Maui, Hawaii Real Estate Market Trends

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Q3

2021

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Our Maui real estate market data is updated quarterly to aid in your real estate forecasts. Historical Maui real estate data and trends are included below the latest update. We break down our data by district, but we cover major residential areas in this region including Kahului, Kihei, Wailuku, and Lahaina.

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Q3 2021 Gardner Report

Maui, Hawaii
Real Estate Market Update

by Matthew Gardner

Below is the latest Maui, Hawaii housing market trends analysis. Additional links:

Historical Maui Data
Hawaii Data
Southern CA Data
Other Regional Data

 

The following analysis of select Maui real estate markets is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Maui’s employment picture continued to improve in the third quarter, but the pace of the job recovery has slowed. This is likely due to the governor’s announcement discouraging tourists from visiting as COVID-19 cases in the state started to rise again. In total, Maui only grew by 600 jobs in the third quarter, down from 3,200 jobs that were added in the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, Maui had recovered 12,400 of the 28,900 jobs that were lost due to COVID-19. With employment levels still down 16,500 jobs from the pre-pandemic peak, there is still work to be done. New cases have started to slow, which may lead to stronger job growth in the final quarter of this year, but we will not see a full job recovery until 2022. Maui’s unemployment rate remained elevated in September, with 8.1% of the workforce still without jobs. However, this is considerably better than the 32.9% rate of last April. The state unemployment rate was 6.6% in September, down from 7.7% at the end of the second quarter.

maui, hawaii Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2021, 729 homes sold, a significant increase of 49.7% compared to a year ago. However, as COVID-19 was taking hold at this time last year, this comparison is not informative. Compared to the second quarter of this year, sales fell 17.1%.

❱ Year-over-year, sales rose across the board, with significant growth in South Maui, North Shore, and the West Side. Sales fell in all areas other than the Central area compared to the second quarter of 2021.

❱ The average number of homes for sale in the quarter was down 19.5% compared to the second quarter of 2021. Fewer listings would explain the drop in sales between second and third quarter.

❱ Pending home sales dropped 14.4% compared to the previous quarter, suggesting that closings in the final quarter of the year may not show growth.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various areas of Maui, Hawaii during the third quarter of 2021.

maui, hawaii Home Prices

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various areas of Maui, Hawaii during the third quarter of 2021.

❱ Average home prices on Maui rose 37.8% year over year to $1.419 million. Prices were 2.9% higher than in the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Affordability issues persist and, thanks to favorable financing rates and persistently low levels of inventory, I still think the island will continue to see price appreciation. However, the rate of growth is steadily slowing.

❱ All markets saw sale prices rise, but the massive increase in the North Shore area is a little deceiving. With only ten sales in the entire quarter, the increase of 287% was an anomaly. Compared to the second quarter, prices rose in all markets other than the Central area, but the drop there was minimal (-.4%).

❱ Limited listing inventory and solid demand have continued to push prices higher but, as I suggested in last quarter’s Gardner Report, the pace of price growth is unsustainable. I said then I expected to see a modest slowing in price appreciation, which appears to be the case.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various areas of Maui, Hawaii during the third quarter of 2021.

Days on Market

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home on Maui dropped six days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ The length of time it took to sell a home dropped year over year in the South Maui, Central, and Up Country market areas, but rose in West Side and the North Shore.

❱ In the third quarter, it took an average of 47 days to sell a home, with transactions occurring the fastest in the Central area and slowest on the West Side.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of 2021, market time dropped in the North Shore and Up Country areas but rose in the balance of the markets contained in this report.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various areas of Maui, Hawaii during the third quarter of 2021.

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Maui, Hawaii during the third quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The number of homes for sale on Maui remains low. This has driven prices up and days on market down—both of which favor homes sellers. In addition to this, low mortgage rates are a stimulant to buying, especially if buyers believe rates will rise (which they have started to do). On the other hand, lower sales may lead sellers to list their homes more competitively to attract buyers, and this, naturally, favors home buyers.

Inventory levels are unlikely to rise significantly anytime soon, and while I expect price growth to continue slowing, it remains a seller’s market. The pendulum may start to move more toward buyers, but not yet. As such, I have left the needle in the same spot as in the second quarter of the year.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

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Major Maui cities covered in this report:

Kahului

Kihei

Wailuku

Lahaina

Pukalani

Haiku

Kula

Makawao

Wailea

Paia

Makena

Kaanapali

Kapalua

Kuau

Spreckelsville

Maui districts covered in this report:

West Maui

South Maui

Central Maui

North ShoreMaui

Up Country Maui

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Gardner Report Archive

Maui, Hawaii
Historical Reports

2021
Q1 2021 Maui, Hawaii Market Trends

Q1 2021
POST | (PDF)

Q2 2021 Maui, Hawaii Real Estate Market Trends

Q2 2021
POST | (PDF)

Q3 2021 Maui, Hawaii Real Estate Market Trends

Q3 2021
POST | (PDF)

2020
                    Hawaii/Maui Real Estate Market Update

Q1 2020
POST

                    Hawaii/Maui Real Estate Market Update

Q2 2020
POST | (PDF)

Market Trends Report Maui Hawaii Q3 2020. Click to view full report.

Q3 2020
POST | (PDF)

Q4 2020 Maui, Hawaii Market Trends

Q4 2020
POST | (PDF)

2019
                    Hawaii/Maui Real Estate Market Update

Q1 2019
POST | (PDF)

                    Hawaii/Maui Real Estate Market Update

Q2 2019
POST | (PDF)

                    Hawaii/Maui Real Estate Market Update

Q3 2019
POST | (PDF)

                    Hawaii/Maui Real Estate Market Update

Q4 2019
POST | (PDF)

2018
                    Hawaii/Maui Real Estate Market Update

Q4 2018
POST

These Maui real estate reports, data, forecasts, and market trends are provided for informational use. If you find it useful, please properly attribute this resource with a link. The areas of Maui are also referred to as Valley Isle, West Maui, Central Maui, Upcountry Maui, and South Maui.